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Sorghum (white) in Namouno (CBM)

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 55% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

35.4–72.9

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

39.2–79.9

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 55% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 35.4 and 72.9 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 39.2 and 79.9 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Namouno (CBM): XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 55% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 35.4 and 72.9 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 39.2 and 79.9 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).050100150200202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 53.8–75 64 43.4–80.2 141 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 45–74.9 60 28.9–80.8 115 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 35.4–72.9 52.6 24.7–95.2 92.6 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 34.7–77 53.9 20.4–98.7 99 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 39.2–79.9 57.4 29.4–103 107 –
Price history (139 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 202664
Aug 202663
Jul 202663
Jun 202663
May 202663
Apr 202678
Mar 202678
Feb 202678
Jan 202678
Dec 202577
Nov 202583
Oct 202597
Sept 2025125
Aug 2025164
Jul 2025156
Jun 2025124
May 2025156
Apr 2025154
Mar 2025147
Feb 2025126
Jan 2025102
Dec 202491
Nov 202492
Oct 2024125
Sept 2024153
Aug 2024133
Jul 2024125
Jun 2024119
May 2024109
Apr 2024124
Mar 2024123
Feb 2024122
Jan 2024122
Dec 2023122
Nov 2023125
Oct 2023159
Sept 2023213
Aug 2023207
Jul 2023194
Jun 2023160
May 2023147
Apr 2023162
Mar 2023159
Feb 2023182
Jan 2023196
Dec 2022219
Nov 2022161
Oct 2022288
Sept 2022309
Aug 2022319
Jul 2022305
Jun 2022273
May 2022258
Apr 2022262
Mar 2022239
Feb 2022239
Jan 2022184
Dec 2021187
Nov 2021147
Oct 2021145
Sept 2021190
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021211
Jun 2021213
May 2021192
Apr 2021190
Mar 2021184
Feb 2021179
Jan 2021142
Dec 2020113
Nov 2020113
Oct 2020149
Sept 2020179
Aug 2020179
Jul 2020134
Jun 2020125
May 2020151
Apr 2020161
Mar 2020125
Feb 2020108
Jan 2020108
Dec 2019108
Nov 2019108
Oct 2019108
Sept 2019108
Aug 2019108
Jul 2019139
Jun 2019170
May 2019181
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019156
Feb 2019172
Jan 2019163
Dec 2018130
Nov 2018109
Oct 2018174
Sept 2018181
Aug 2018186
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018204
May 2018208
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018190
Feb 2018181
Jan 2018181
Dec 2017145
Nov 2017131
Oct 2017127
Sept 2017205
Aug 2017217
Jul 2017163
Jun 2017157
May 2017145
Apr 2017145
Mar 2017145
Feb 2017122
Jan 2017103
Dec 201691
Nov 201695
Oct 2016118
Sept 2016145
Aug 2016136
Jul 2016127
Jun 2016127
May 2016127
Apr 2016138
Mar 2016140
Feb 2016139
Nov 2015118
Oct 2015109
Sept 2015163
Aug 2015154
Jul 2015145
Jun 2015151
May 2015151
Apr 2015127
Mar 2015127
Feb 2015149
Jan 2015163

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1043-135-retail-kg.