Track record
How often past forecasts were right. Bad results are shown as clearly as good ones.
- 80 % range held: the share of cases where the real price fell inside the 80 % range. If the ranges are honest, this is close to 80 %.
- Typical error: the usual distance between the most likely price and the real price.
- Warnings of new spikes: whether the spike chance warned of new spikes better than simply using how often new spikes happen (the base rate). The spike chance is shown on the site only where it did better, currently next month only. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.
For next month, the 80 % range held in 77% of 38,940 past cases.
Live results
No live results yet. Live forecasts are scored once the target month and the month after it are published.
Test on past data (backtest)
Period, population and method (from the data): 2023-01 onwards; series eligible for publication at the forecast date; walk-forward: each forecast made with only the data published by then.
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 80% | 94% | 5% | better than the base rate | 39,541 |
| Estimate (this month) | 79% | 94% | 7% | better than the base rate | 39,214 |
| Next month | 77% | 94% | 10% | better than the base rate | 38,940 |
| In 2 months | 76% | 94% | 13% | worse than the base rate | 38,614 |
| In 3 months | 76% | 93% | 15% | worse than the base rate | 38,343 |
Markets that report irregularly
a price published in fewer than 9 of the last 12 months
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 82% | 96% | 4% | better than the base rate | 1,186 |
| Estimate (this month) | 80% | 95% | 8% | better than the base rate | 1,171 |
| Next month | 81% | 95% | 11% | better than the base rate | 1,194 |
| In 2 months | 81% | 95% | 15% | better than the base rate | 1,202 |
| In 3 months | 77% | 94% | 19% | better than the base rate | 1,285 |
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 80% | 94% | 5% | better than the base rate | 38,355 |
| Estimate (this month) | 78% | 94% | 7% | better than the base rate | 38,043 |
| Next month | 77% | 94% | 10% | no better than the base rate | 37,746 |
| In 2 months | 76% | 94% | 13% | worse than the base rate | 37,412 |
| In 3 months | 76% | 93% | 15% | worse than the base rate | 37,058 |
Burkina Faso
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 82% | 96% | 4% | better than the base rate | 12,122 |
| Estimate (this month) | 81% | 95% | 7% | better than the base rate | 12,073 |
| Next month | 81% | 95% | 9% | better than the base rate | 12,034 |
| In 2 months | 81% | 94% | 12% | worse than the base rate | 12,001 |
| In 3 months | 81% | 94% | 14% | worse than the base rate | 11,975 |
Burundi
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 79% | 94% | 6% | better than the base rate | 16,758 |
| Estimate (this month) | 78% | 94% | 9% | better than the base rate | 16,545 |
| Next month | 76% | 93% | 11% | better than the base rate | 16,316 |
| In 2 months | 74% | 93% | 14% | no better than the base rate | 16,060 |
| In 3 months | 73% | 92% | 17% | worse than the base rate | 15,769 |
Mali
| Horizon | 80 % range held ideal 80 % | 95 % range held ideal 95 % | Typical error | Warnings of new spikes | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estimate (last month) | 79% | 94% | 3% | better than the base rate | 10,661 |
| Estimate (this month) | 76% | 94% | 6% | better than the base rate | 10,596 |
| Next month | 74% | 94% | 9% | worse than the base rate | 10,590 |
| In 2 months | 74% | 94% | 12% | worse than the base rate | 10,553 |
| In 3 months | 74% | 94% | 14% | worse than the base rate | 10,599 |