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Food basket in Namouno (CBM)

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

529–1,145

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

549–1,340

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 964 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 529 and 1,145 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 549 and 1,340 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Namouno (CBM): XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 964 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 529 and 1,145 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 549 and 1,340 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.01,0002,0003,0004,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 833–1,148 987 717–1,349
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 659–1,161 875 485–1,648
Nov 2026
Next month		 529–1,145 796 343–1,617
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 501–1,203 815 264–1,905
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 549–1,340 880 286–2,121
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 2026952
Aug 2026964
Jul 2026950
Jun 2026971
May 2026993
Apr 20261,171
Mar 20261,181
Feb 20261,156
Jan 20261,288
Dec 20251,430
Nov 20251,475
Oct 20251,583
Sept 20252,049
Aug 20252,468
Jul 20252,454
Jun 20253,042
May 20252,594
Apr 20252,510
Mar 20252,275
Feb 20252,084
Jan 20251,733
Dec 20241,644
Nov 20241,646
Oct 20242,216
Sept 20242,805
Aug 20242,853
Jul 20243,149
May 20242,272
Apr 20242,260
Mar 20242,361
Feb 20242,567
Jan 20242,448
Dec 20232,256
Nov 20231,987
Oct 20232,664
Sept 20233,629
Aug 20233,757
Jul 20233,641
Jun 20233,217
May 20233,379
Apr 20233,564
Mar 20233,562
Feb 20233,577
Jan 20233,914
Dec 20223,887
Nov 20223,133
Oct 20224,237
Sept 20225,116
Aug 20225,253
Jul 20225,105
Jun 20224,466
May 20224,453
Apr 20224,120
Mar 20223,901
Feb 20223,347
Jan 20223,061
Dec 20212,811
Nov 20212,802
Oct 20213,211
Sept 20214,111
Aug 20215,192
Jul 20213,352
Jun 20214,303
May 20213,806
Mar 20213,761
Feb 20213,023
Jan 20212,477
Dec 20202,248
Nov 20202,150
Oct 20202,498
Sept 20203,631
Aug 20203,752
Jul 20203,548
Jun 20203,221
May 20202,815
Apr 20202,779
Mar 20202,716
Feb 20202,737
Jan 20202,716
Dec 20192,087
Nov 20191,507
Oct 20191,723
Sept 20191,642
Aug 20192,048
Jul 20192,978
Jun 20193,654
May 20193,602
Apr 20193,182
Mar 20193,146
Feb 20193,182
Jan 20193,290
Dec 20182,474
Nov 20182,013
Oct 20183,409
Sept 20183,442
Aug 20183,727
Jul 20183,983
Jun 20184,055
May 20183,839
Apr 20183,706
Mar 20183,731
Feb 20183,683
Jan 20183,416
Dec 20173,020
Nov 20173,020
Oct 20172,616
Sept 20173,279
Aug 20173,667
Jul 20173,014
Jun 20172,762
May 20172,762
Apr 20172,705
Mar 20172,740
Feb 20172,385
Jan 20171,907
Dec 20161,831
Nov 20161,637
Oct 20161,847
Sept 20162,590
Aug 20162,326
Jul 20162,250
Jun 20162,336
May 20162,056
Apr 20162,212
Mar 20162,277
Feb 20162,108
Nov 20152,487
Oct 20151,802
Sept 20152,827
Aug 20152,638
Jul 20152,546
Jun 20152,690
May 20152,762
Apr 20152,762
Mar 20152,805
Feb 20152,778

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508