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Rice (local) in Banfora

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

373–488

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

351–531

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 373 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 351 and 531 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Banfora: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 373 and 488 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 351 and 531 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 846); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 404–454 421 377–512 528 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 389–473 422 340–585 530 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 373–488 421 313–627 510 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 358–501 416 316–703 485 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 351–531 419 293–846 492 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026435
Aug 2026422
Jul 2026422
Jun 2026422
May 2026417
Apr 2026384
Mar 2026410
Feb 2026396
Jan 2026376
Dec 2025367
Nov 2025411
Oct 2025441
Sept 2025441
Aug 2025446
Jul 2025489
Jun 2025471
May 2025508
Apr 2025530
Mar 2025505
Feb 2025539
Jan 2025501
Dec 2024446
Nov 2024466
Oct 2024556
Sept 2024571
Aug 2024498
Jul 2024485
Jun 2024484
May 2024473
Apr 2024460
Mar 2024422
Feb 2024409
Jan 2024398
Dec 2023398
Nov 2023417
Oct 2023473
Sept 2023473
Aug 2023451
Jul 2023430
Jun 2023433
May 2023433
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023391
Feb 2023391
Jan 2023387
Dec 2022383
Nov 2022381
Oct 2022377
Sept 2022377
Aug 2022377
Jul 2022372
Jun 2022333
May 2022342
Apr 2022302
Mar 2022352
Feb 2022345
Jan 2022327
Dec 2021327
Nov 2021352
Oct 2021327
Sept 2021327
Aug 2021352
Jul 2021352
Jun 2021333
May 2021343
Apr 2021339
Mar 2021303
Feb 2021321
Jan 2021314
Dec 2020336
Nov 2020345
Oct 2020326
Sept 2020312
Aug 2020308
Jul 2020307
Jun 2020306
May 2020255
Apr 2020255

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-129-71-retail-kg.