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Food basket in Banfora

CASCADES, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,441–5,051

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,865–5,287

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,036 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,441 and 5,051 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,865 and 5,287 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Banfora: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,036 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,441 and 5,051 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,865 and 5,287 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,834–4,518 4,042 3,650–5,052
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,700–4,793 4,097 3,291–5,490
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,441–5,051 4,039 2,629–5,697
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,086–5,174 4,034 1,910–7,036
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,865–5,287 4,039 1,689–7,054
Cost history (134 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,399
Aug 20264,036
Jul 20264,099
Jun 20264,196
May 20264,477
Apr 20264,139
Mar 20264,135
Feb 20264,182
Jan 20264,325
Dec 20254,183
Nov 20254,451
Oct 20255,298
Sept 20254,949
Aug 20255,728
Jul 20256,149
Jun 20256,297
May 20256,917
Apr 20256,619
Mar 20256,376
Feb 20256,182
Jan 20255,584
Dec 20246,290
Nov 20246,934
Oct 20246,622
Sept 20246,803
Aug 20246,636
Jun 20245,248
May 20245,234
Apr 20245,474
Mar 20245,169
Feb 20244,708
Jan 20244,710
Dec 20234,584
Nov 20234,530
Oct 20234,605
Sept 20234,638
Jul 20235,910
Jun 20236,317
May 20236,034
Apr 20236,049
Mar 20235,147
Feb 20235,141
Jan 20235,098
Dec 20226,080
Nov 20226,563
Oct 20226,186
Sept 20226,580
Aug 20226,450
Jul 20226,326
Jun 20226,372
May 20226,435
Apr 20226,344
Mar 20225,824
Feb 20225,034
Jan 20224,476
Dec 20214,570
Nov 20214,301
Oct 20213,845
Sept 20214,244
Aug 20213,915
Jul 20214,171
Jun 20213,892
May 20213,982
Apr 20213,935
Mar 20213,652
Feb 20213,409
Jan 20213,505
Dec 20203,439
Nov 20203,719
Oct 20203,823
Sept 20203,780
Aug 20203,713
Jul 20203,272
Jun 20203,116
May 20202,962
Apr 20202,962
Mar 20202,956
Feb 20202,906
Jan 20202,924
Dec 20192,769
Nov 20192,644
Oct 20193,049
Sept 20192,852
Aug 20192,786
Jul 20193,006
Jun 20193,056
May 20193,182
Apr 20193,146
Mar 20193,346
Feb 20193,364
Jan 20193,462
Dec 20183,462
Nov 20183,335
Oct 20183,664
Sept 20184,269
Aug 20184,092
Jul 20183,976
Jun 20184,036
May 20184,036
Apr 20184,007
Mar 20183,760
Feb 20183,724
Jan 20183,662
Dec 20173,545
Nov 20173,808
Oct 20174,090
Sept 20173,932
Aug 20173,830
Jul 20173,790
Jun 20173,794
May 20173,674
Apr 20173,497
Mar 20173,361
Feb 20173,122
Jan 20173,113
Dec 20163,248
Nov 20163,550
Oct 20163,388
Sept 20163,189
Aug 20163,221
Jun 20163,293
May 20163,259
Apr 20163,215
Mar 20163,070
Feb 20162,741
Jan 20162,865
Dec 20153,059
Nov 20153,052
Oct 20153,156
Sept 20153,247
Aug 20153,078
Jul 20153,087
Jun 20153,291
May 20153,287

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508