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Rice (imported) in Bousse

PLATEAU-CENTRAL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

356–468

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

331–500

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 356 and 468 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 331 and 500 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Bousse: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 356 and 468 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 331 and 500 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 383–443 405 358–494 514 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 369–453 407 320–539 503 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 356–468 408 297–584 500 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 361–490 407 312–673 523 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 331–500 410 254–665 498 –
Price history (76 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026409
Aug 2026400
Jul 2026400
Jun 2026400
May 2026400
Apr 2026400
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025467
Oct 2025488
Sept 2025538
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025561
Dec 2024581
Nov 2024575
Oct 2024574
Sept 2024555
Aug 2024536
Jul 2024544
Jun 2024543
May 2024537
Apr 2024542
Mar 2024535
Dec 2023413
Nov 2023411
Oct 2023405
Sept 2023436
Aug 2023414
Jul 2023413
Jun 2023427
May 2023409
Apr 2023435
Mar 2023408
Feb 2023412
Jan 2023415
Dec 2022420
Nov 2022411
Oct 2022415
Sept 2022410
Aug 2022578
Jul 2022419
Jun 2022419
May 2022432
Apr 2022413
Mar 2022409
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021406
Nov 2021429
Oct 2021429
Sept 2021429
Aug 2021418
Jul 2021423
Jun 2021411
May 2021414
Apr 2021404
Mar 2021405
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021414
Dec 2020571
Nov 2020414
Oct 2020414
Sept 2020414
Aug 2020414
Jul 2020414
Jun 2020414
May 2020414
Apr 2020414

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-130-64-retail-kg.