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Rice (local) in Diebougou

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 10% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

388–473

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

364–508

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 388 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Diebougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 10% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 388 and 473 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 364 and 508 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 693); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 410–457 425 382–496 487 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 399–466 425 346–526 481 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 388–473 424 334–538 479 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 373–479 419 308–554 465 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 364–508 423 292–693 474 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026425
Aug 2026422
Jul 2026461
Jun 2026445
May 2026462
Apr 2026460
Mar 2026464
Feb 2026453
Jan 2026441
Dec 2025428
Nov 2025455
Oct 2025467
Sept 2025502
Aug 2025448
Jul 2025453
Jun 2025445
May 2025441
Apr 2025429
Mar 2025432
Feb 2025445
Jan 2025445
Dec 2024452
Nov 2024491
Oct 2024467
Sept 2024452
Aug 2024445
Jul 2024409
Jun 2024409
May 2024409
Apr 2024409
Mar 2024384
Feb 2024384
Jan 2024384
Dec 2023384
Nov 2023384
Oct 2023384
Sept 2023384
Aug 2023384
Jul 2023384
Jun 2023405
May 2023406
Apr 2023404
Mar 2023409
Feb 2023410
Jan 2023413
Dec 2022413
Nov 2022420
Oct 2022431
Sept 2022437
Aug 2022455
Jul 2022414
Jun 2022401
May 2022388
Apr 2022374
Mar 2022372
Feb 2022372
Jan 2022372
Dec 2021354
Nov 2021354
Oct 2021354
Sept 2021354
Aug 2021354
Jul 2021354
Jun 2021360
May 2021371
Apr 2021345
Mar 2021353
Feb 2021355
Jan 2021355
Dec 2020337
Nov 2020343
Oct 2020352
Sept 2020357
Aug 2020358
Jul 2020344
Jun 2020351
May 2020357
Apr 2020357

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-131-71-retail-kg.