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Food basket in Diebougou

SUD-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,345–5,228

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,199–5,583

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,105 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,345 and 5,228 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,199 and 5,583 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Diebougou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,105 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,345 and 5,228 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,199 and 5,583 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,103); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,874–4,640 4,082 3,709–5,201
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,626–5,055 4,088 3,432–6,357
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,345–5,228 3,992 3,039–6,726
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,239–5,443 4,045 2,746–8,103
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,199–5,583 4,103 2,643–7,697
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,258
Aug 20264,105
Jul 20264,189
Jun 20264,198
May 20264,426
Apr 20264,442
Mar 20264,789
Feb 20264,924
Jan 20264,357
Dec 20254,954
Nov 20254,896
Oct 20255,216
Sept 20255,299
Aug 20255,040
Jul 20255,267
Jun 20255,497
May 20255,890
Apr 20255,734
Mar 20256,055
Feb 20255,854
Jan 20255,637
Dec 20246,026
Nov 20245,861
Oct 20246,325
Sept 20246,639
Aug 20246,401
Jul 20245,036
Jun 20244,994
May 20244,640
Apr 20244,976
Mar 20244,976
Feb 20244,291
Jan 20244,853
Dec 20235,256
Nov 20234,925
Oct 20234,584
Sept 20234,589
Aug 20234,589
Jul 20234,294
Jun 20234,552
May 20234,841
Apr 20235,758
Mar 20235,729
Feb 20235,750
Jan 20235,585
Dec 20225,573
Nov 20226,509
Oct 20226,718
Sept 20226,533
Aug 20226,283
Jul 20226,193
Jun 20225,929
May 20225,628
Apr 20225,958
Mar 20224,822
Feb 20224,181
Jan 20224,619
Dec 20213,895
Nov 20214,243
Oct 20214,289
Sept 20214,289
Aug 20213,893
Jul 20213,653
Jun 20213,965
May 20214,090
Apr 20213,837
Mar 20213,884
Feb 20213,787
Jan 20213,787
Dec 20203,655
Nov 20203,554
Oct 20203,771
Sept 20203,601
Aug 20203,474
Jul 20203,460
Jun 20203,212
May 20203,351
Apr 20203,351
Mar 20203,004
Feb 20202,839
Jan 20202,483
Dec 20192,498
Nov 20192,226
Oct 20192,200
Sept 20192,174
Aug 20192,390
Jul 20192,563
Jun 20193,053
May 20193,160
Apr 20193,251
Mar 20193,029
Feb 20192,936
Jan 20193,269
Dec 20183,269
Nov 20183,434
Oct 20184,199
Sept 20183,829
Aug 20184,069
Jul 20184,196
Jun 20183,917
May 20184,049
Apr 20184,020
Mar 20183,883
Feb 20183,889
Jan 20183,864
Dec 20173,505
Nov 20173,848
Oct 20174,055
Sept 20173,642
Aug 20173,570
Jul 20173,530
Jun 20173,227
May 20173,185
Apr 20173,069
Mar 20172,953
Feb 20172,853
Jan 20172,823
Dec 20162,835
Nov 20162,692
Oct 20162,915
Sept 20163,096
Aug 20162,734
Jun 20163,231
May 20163,188
Apr 20163,190
Mar 20162,987
Feb 20162,810
Jan 20162,369
Dec 20152,482
Nov 20152,553
Oct 20152,673
Sept 20153,033
Aug 20153,007
Jul 20153,155
Jun 20153,047
May 20152,902

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508