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Food basket in Djibo

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

4,453–6,898

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

4,090–7,731

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,554 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,453 and 6,898 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,090 and 7,731 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Djibo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 5,554 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 4,453 and 6,898 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 4,090 and 7,731 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,5005,0007,50010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 5,191–6,294 5,693 4,334–6,574
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 4,618–6,734 5,618 3,334–7,498
Nov 2026
Next month		 4,453–6,898 5,684 2,775–7,192
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 4,180–7,280 5,689 2,608–8,669
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 4,090–7,731 5,690 2,590–8,682
Cost history (113 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20265,536
Aug 20265,554
Jul 20265,559
Jun 20265,554
May 20265,554
Apr 20265,522
Mar 20265,625
Feb 20265,860
Sept 20258,424
Aug 20258,467
Jul 20258,415
Mar 20259,100
Dec 20248,575
Jun 20246,874
May 20246,661
Apr 20246,646
Feb 20248,610
Jan 20247,153
Nov 20237,871
Oct 20237,940
Sept 20237,948
Aug 20238,044
Jul 20238,201
Jun 20239,596
May 202310,333
Apr 20239,476
Jan 202321,522
Dec 202219,985
Nov 202213,016
Sept 20228,344
Aug 20227,404
Jul 20227,241
Jun 20227,044
Apr 20226,711
Mar 20225,153
Feb 20224,409
Jan 20224,414
Nov 20214,114
Oct 20213,478
Sept 20213,628
Aug 20213,554
Jul 20213,523
Jun 20213,602
May 20213,355
Apr 20213,208
Mar 20213,170
Feb 20213,131
Jan 20213,001
Dec 20202,836
Nov 20202,848
Oct 20203,240
Sept 20203,741
Aug 20203,689
Jul 20203,221
Jun 20203,274
May 20202,805
Apr 20202,805
Mar 20202,686
Feb 20202,645
Jan 20202,525
Dec 20192,369
Nov 20192,344
Oct 20192,484
Sept 20192,475
Aug 20192,632
Jul 20192,543
Jun 20192,593
May 20192,652
Apr 20192,705
Mar 20192,695
Feb 20192,701
Jan 20192,603
Dec 20182,603
Nov 20182,657
Oct 20182,736
Sept 20183,250
Aug 20183,570
Jul 20183,398
Jun 20183,376
May 20183,467
Apr 20183,480
Mar 20183,401
Feb 20183,457
Jan 20183,122
Dec 20172,803
Nov 20172,780
Oct 20172,818
Sept 20173,663
Aug 20173,912
Jul 20173,541
Jun 20173,581
May 20173,380
Apr 20173,240
Mar 20173,166
Feb 20172,952
Jan 20172,876
Nov 20162,554
Oct 20162,656
Sept 20163,244
Aug 20163,342
Jun 20163,106
May 20163,030
Apr 20162,951
Mar 20162,843
Feb 20162,755
Jan 20162,680
Dec 20152,620
Nov 20152,569
Oct 20152,687
Sept 20152,999
Aug 20152,946
Jun 20152,915
May 20152,753

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508