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Sorghum (white) in Dori

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

196–295

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

195–310

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 310 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Dori: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 196 and 295 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 195 and 310 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 236–288 263 217–301 372 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 208–291 259 167–307 340 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 196–295 254 136–317 338 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 193–307 254 150–374 344 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 195–310 255 151–361 341 –
Price history (276 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026264
Aug 2026264
Jul 2026264
Jun 2026264
May 2026264
Apr 2026264
Mar 2026264
Feb 2026278
Jan 2026264
Dec 2025264
Nov 2025264
Oct 2025242
Sept 2025292
Aug 2025326
Jul 2025337
Jun 2025353
May 2025366
Apr 2025351
Mar 2025373
Feb 2025354
Jan 2025337
Dec 2024370
Nov 2024389
Oct 2024389
Sept 2024407
Aug 2024433
Jul 2024410
Jun 2024361
May 2024356
Apr 2024343
Mar 2024333
Feb 2024323
Jan 2024313
Dec 2023325
Nov 2023299
Oct 2023333
Sept 2023338
Aug 2023354
Jul 2023333
Jun 2023342
May 2023354
Apr 2023340
Mar 2023356
Feb 2023340
Jan 2023323
Dec 2022334
Nov 2022337
Oct 2022338
Sept 2022385
Aug 2022401
Jul 2022410
Jun 2022512
May 2022374
Apr 2022385
Mar 2022362
Feb 2022307
Jan 2022280
Dec 2021273
Nov 2021270
Oct 2021246
Sept 2021246
Aug 2021246
Jul 2021243
Jun 2021246
May 2021219
Apr 2021215
Mar 2021217
Feb 2021208
Jan 2021188
Dec 2020188
Nov 2020188
Oct 2020191
Sept 2020210
Aug 2020242
Jul 2020218
Jun 2020202
May 2020188
Apr 2020188
Mar 2020186
Feb 2020197
Jan 2020192
Dec 2019185
Nov 2019161
Oct 2019161
Sept 2019181
Aug 2019188
Jul 2019214
Jun 2019219
May 2019219
Apr 2019215
Mar 2019212
Feb 2019210
Jan 2019218
Dec 2018218
Nov 2018226
Oct 2018233
Sept 2018267
Aug 2018278
Jul 2018271
Jun 2018278
May 2018278
Apr 2018278
Mar 2018275
Feb 2018242
Jan 2018222
Dec 2017212
Nov 2017198
Oct 2017226
Sept 2017249
Aug 2017227
Jul 2017209
Jun 2017194
May 2017211
Apr 2017198
Mar 2017189
Feb 2017189
Jan 2017179
Dec 2016185
Nov 2016190
Oct 2016185
Sept 2016195
Aug 2016195
Jul 2016195
Jun 2016195
May 2016195
Apr 2016195
Mar 2016195
Feb 2016195
Jan 2016195
Dec 2015185
Nov 2015190
Oct 2015195
Sept 2015195
Aug 2015195
Jul 2015191
Jun 2015198
May 2015196
Apr 2015195
Mar 2015195
Feb 2015195
Jan 2015176
Dec 2014187
Nov 2014202
Oct 2014205
Sept 2014214
Jul 2014200
Jun 2014200
May 2014202
Apr 2014195
Mar 2014195
Feb 2014193
Dec 2013172
Nov 2013184
Oct 2013188
Sept 2013193
Aug 2013195
Jul 2013195
Jun 2013195
May 2013191
Apr 2013195
Mar 2013195
Feb 2013195
Jan 2013172
Dec 2012176
Nov 2012189
Oct 2012204
Sept 2012230
Aug 2012250
Jul 2012251
Jun 2012243
May 2012251
Apr 2012254
Mar 2012216
Feb 2012200
Jan 2012196
Dec 2011210
Nov 2011189
Oct 2011162
Sept 2011162
Aug 2011178
Jul 2011159
Jun 2011157
May 2011153
Apr 2011157
Mar 2011153
Feb 2011162
Jan 2011152
Dec 2010131
Nov 2010125
Oct 2010138
Sept 2010163
Aug 2010169
Jul 2010171
Jun 2010167
May 2010167
Apr 2010167
Mar 2010167
Feb 2010167
Jan 2010166
May 2009172
Apr 2009182
Mar 2009168
Feb 2009162
Jan 2009164
Dec 2008158
Nov 2008165
Oct 2008166
Sept 2008178
Aug 2008171
Jul 2008166
Jun 2008158
May 2008153
Apr 2008128
Mar 2008126
Feb 2008126
Jan 2008127
Dec 2007129
Nov 2007112
Oct 2007128
Sept 2007125
Aug 2007127
Jul 2007127
Jun 2007131
May 2007132
Apr 2007134
Mar 2007140
Feb 2007127
Jan 2007127
Dec 2006121
Nov 2006118
Oct 2006126
Sept 2006134
Aug 2006149
Jul 2006138
Jun 2006139
May 2006145
Apr 2006143
Mar 2006164
Feb 2006141
Jan 2006146
Dec 2005146
Nov 2005153
Oct 2005156
Sept 2005257
Aug 2005270
Jul 2005272
Jun 2005242
May 2005199
Apr 2005207
Mar 2005177
Feb 2005166
Jan 2005165
Dec 2004187
Nov 2004177
Oct 2004162
Sept 2004118
Aug 2004126
Jul 2004115
Jun 2004103
May 2004105
Apr 2004101
Mar 2004104
Feb 2004110
Jan 2004105
Dec 2003103
Nov 2003104
Oct 2003112
Sept 2003115
Aug 2003157
Jul 2003148
Jun 2003187
May 2003187
Apr 2003203
Mar 2003180
Feb 2003176
Jan 2003177

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-133-135-retail-kg.