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Rice (imported) in Dori

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 12% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

457–607

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

427–687

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 457 and 607 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 427 and 687 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Dori: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 12% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 10% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 457 and 607 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 427 and 687 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,101); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 501–582 544 455–647 614 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 491–595 544 414–706 620 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 457–607 536 348–753 599 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 433–646 534 325–910 601 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 427–687 535 345–1,101 601 –
Price history (77 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026575
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026510
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025600
Jul 2025600
Jun 2025533
May 2025550
Apr 2025590
Mar 2025569
Feb 2025562
Jan 2025537
Dec 2024606
Nov 2024596
Oct 2024607
Sept 2024641
Aug 2024633
Jul 2024646
Jun 2024630
May 2024627
Apr 2024553
Mar 2024615
Feb 2024615
Jan 2024566
Dec 2023570
Nov 2023555
Oct 2023561
Sept 2023590
Aug 2023590
Jul 2023582
Jun 2023572
May 2023512
Apr 2023463
Mar 2023463
Feb 2023443
Jan 2023438
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022440
Oct 2022435
Sept 2022465
Aug 2022461
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022419
May 2022416
Apr 2022413
Mar 2022416
Feb 2022426
Jan 2022457
Dec 2021411
Nov 2021403
Oct 2021419
Sept 2021394
Aug 2021403
Jul 2021403
Jun 2021403
May 2021403
Apr 2021395
Mar 2021485
Feb 2021484
Jan 2021386
Dec 2020390
Nov 2020396
Oct 2020396
Sept 2020388
Aug 2020396
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020390
May 2020398
Apr 2020398

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-133-64-retail-kg.