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Rice (local) in Dori

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

479–631

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

432–692

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 479 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 432 and 692 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Dori: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 479 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 432 and 692 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,008); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 517–601 561 471–649 655 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 504–609 559 433–713 659 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 479–631 552 393–741 670 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 436–664 547 339–917 634 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 432–692 551 305–1,008 671 –
Price history (75 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026573
Aug 2026566
Jul 2026526
Jun 2026556
May 2026528
Apr 2026528
Mar 2026528
Feb 2026506
Dec 2025519
Nov 2025628
Oct 2025497
Sept 2025497
Aug 2025527
Jul 2025560
Jun 2025548
May 2025576
Apr 2025561
Mar 2025563
Feb 2025583
Jan 2025589
Dec 2024570
Nov 2024590
Oct 2024615
Sept 2024615
Aug 2024633
Jul 2024646
Jun 2024646
May 2024635
Apr 2024622
Mar 2024615
Feb 2024600
Jan 2024580
Dec 2023559
Nov 2023572
Oct 2023582
Sept 2023590
Aug 2023590
Jul 2023582
Jun 2023590
May 2023522
Apr 2023427
Mar 2023428
Feb 2023410
Jan 2023413
Dec 2022410
Nov 2022458
Oct 2022457
Sept 2022470
Aug 2022471
Jul 2022467
Jun 2022471
Mar 2022420
Feb 2022403
Jan 2022410
Dec 2021369
Nov 2021361
Oct 2021390
Sept 2021361
Aug 2021361
Jul 2021361
Jun 2021361
May 2021373
Apr 2021371
Mar 2021380
Feb 2021361
Jan 2021347
Dec 2020347
Nov 2020347
Oct 2020347
Sept 2020347
Aug 2020347
Jul 2020358
Jun 2020361
May 2020347
Apr 2020347

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-133-71-retail-kg.