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Rice (local) in Fada N'Gourma

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 15% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

383–475

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

376–506

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 383 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 376 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Fada N'Gourma: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 15% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 4% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 383 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 376 and 506 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 413–461 434 367–494 531 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 399–466 432 325–525 539 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 383–475 429 295–557 538 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 372–491 427 297–601 542 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 376–506 430 315–649 547 –
Price history (141 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026426
Aug 2026435
Jul 2026429
Jun 2026423
May 2026417
Apr 2026410
Mar 2026459
Feb 2026569
Jan 2026571
Dec 2025589
Nov 2025576
Oct 2025542
Sept 2025593
Aug 2025593
Jul 2025606
Jun 2025605
May 2025617
Apr 2025618
Mar 2025611
Feb 2025597
Jan 2025623
Dec 2024623
Nov 2024625
Oct 2024625
Sept 2024484
Aug 2024470
Jul 2024419
Jun 2024398
May 2024397
Apr 2024418
Mar 2024416
Feb 2024416
Jan 2024419
Dec 2023407
Nov 2023404
Oct 2023398
Sept 2023401
Aug 2023402
Jul 2023404
Jun 2023390
May 2023401
Apr 2023402
Mar 2023402
Feb 2023399
Jan 2023397
Dec 2022398
Nov 2022401
Oct 2022401
Sept 2022398
Aug 2022397
Jul 2022402
Jun 2022398
May 2022370
Apr 2022369
Mar 2022369
Feb 2022366
Jan 2022357
Dec 2021332
Nov 2021330
Oct 2021331
Sept 2021333
Aug 2021333
Jul 2021333
Jun 2021332
May 2021332
Apr 2021332
Mar 2021332
Feb 2021330
Jan 2021330
Dec 2020331
Nov 2020331
Oct 2020331
Sept 2020332
Aug 2020331
Jul 2020332
Jun 2020324
May 2020333
Apr 2020333
Mar 2020331
Feb 2020331
Jan 2020331
Dec 2019331
Nov 2019332
Oct 2019332
Sept 2019332
Aug 2019333
Jul 2019333
Jun 2019332
May 2019332
Apr 2019332
Mar 2019332
Feb 2019332
Jan 2019332
Dec 2018332
Nov 2018332
Oct 2018333
Sept 2018333
Aug 2018333
Jul 2018333
Jun 2018333
May 2018333
Apr 2018333
Mar 2018333
Feb 2018333
Jan 2018333
Dec 2017320
Nov 2017300
Oct 2017300
Sept 2017300
Aug 2017300
Jul 2017313
Jun 2017313
May 2017300
Apr 2017300
Mar 2017300
Feb 2017300
Jan 2017300
Dec 2016300
Nov 2016308
Oct 2016333
Sept 2016333
Aug 2016333
Jul 2016333
Jun 2016333
May 2016333
Apr 2016325
Mar 2016300
Feb 2016300
Jan 2016300
Dec 2015300
Nov 2015320
Oct 2015333
Sept 2015333
Aug 2015317
Jul 2015300
Jun 2015300
May 2015300
Apr 2015300
Mar 2015300
Feb 2015300
Jan 2015286

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-134-71-retail-kg.