Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Food basket in Fada N'Gourma

EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,511–5,303

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,204–5,810

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,465 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,511 and 5,303 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,204 and 5,810 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Fada N'Gourma: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,465 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,511 and 5,303 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,204 and 5,810 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,719); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,131–4,971 4,485 3,835–5,346
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,817–5,230 4,475 3,284–5,828
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,511–5,303 4,428 2,669–6,534
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,280–5,565 4,384 2,060–7,248
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,204–5,810 4,356 2,097–7,719
Cost history (133 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,402
Aug 20264,465
Jul 20264,270
Jun 20264,251
May 20264,145
Apr 20264,287
Mar 20264,354
Feb 20264,726
Jan 20264,244
Dec 20254,278
Nov 20254,592
Oct 20254,672
Sept 20254,924
Aug 20255,673
Jul 20255,818
May 20255,858
Apr 20255,686
Mar 20255,636
Feb 20255,587
Jan 20255,546
Dec 20244,705
Nov 20245,598
Oct 20245,580
Sept 20245,948
Aug 20245,848
Jul 20245,209
Jun 20244,802
May 20244,766
Apr 20244,583
Mar 20244,342
Feb 20244,129
Jan 20244,194
Dec 20234,343
Nov 20234,383
Oct 20234,462
Sept 20234,486
Aug 20234,574
Jul 20234,550
May 20234,554
Apr 20234,547
Mar 20234,565
Feb 20234,614
Jan 20234,591
Dec 20225,422
Nov 20225,450
Oct 20225,530
Sept 20225,767
Aug 20225,746
Jun 20225,341
May 20224,932
Apr 20224,985
Mar 20225,000
Feb 20224,287
Jan 20224,055
Dec 20213,971
Nov 20213,910
Oct 20213,601
Sept 20213,743
Aug 20213,596
Jun 20213,505
May 20213,431
Apr 20213,402
Mar 20213,288
Feb 20213,137
Jan 20213,122
Dec 20203,203
Nov 20203,197
Oct 20203,289
Sept 20203,257
Aug 20203,266
Jul 20202,882
Jun 20202,873
May 20202,592
Apr 20202,592
Mar 20202,489
Feb 20202,507
Jan 20202,493
Dec 20192,473
Nov 20192,186
Oct 20192,515
Sept 20192,441
Aug 20192,450
Jul 20192,414
Jun 20192,736
May 20192,870
Apr 20192,932
Mar 20192,968
Feb 20193,125
Jan 20193,280
Dec 20183,280
Nov 20183,280
Oct 20183,277
Sept 20183,387
Aug 20183,503
Jun 20183,488
May 20183,392
Apr 20183,281
Mar 20183,275
Feb 20183,248
Jan 20183,035
Dec 20173,176
Nov 20173,151
Oct 20173,113
Sept 20173,442
Aug 20173,256
Jun 20173,227
May 20172,963
Apr 20172,879
Mar 20172,830
Feb 20172,590
Jan 20172,328
Dec 20162,092
Nov 20162,518
Oct 20162,600
Sept 20162,848
Aug 20162,656
Jun 20162,530
May 20162,620
Apr 20162,464
Mar 20162,464
Feb 20162,464
Jan 20162,403
Dec 20152,555
Nov 20152,447
Oct 20152,671
Sept 20152,798
Aug 20152,798
Jun 20152,798
May 20152,564
Apr 20152,495
Mar 20152,447
Feb 20152,699
Jan 20152,529

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508