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Sorghum (white) in Gorom Gorom

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

252–352

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

232–372

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 352 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 232 and 372 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Gorom Gorom: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 252 and 352 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 232 and 372 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 274–336 311 260–361 409 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 257–342 309 254–394 395 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 252–352 304 234–406 401 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 242–363 303 211–460 395 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 232–372 303 173–494 387 –
Price history (278 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026299
Aug 2026319
Jul 2026273
Jun 2026274
May 2026323
Apr 2026311
Mar 2026291
Feb 2026323
Jan 2026351
Dec 2025346
Nov 2025343
Oct 2025350
Sept 2025371
Aug 2025417
Jul 2025417
Jun 2025471
May 2025463
Apr 2025438
Mar 2025440
Jan 2025394
Dec 2024412
Nov 2024391
Oct 2024397
Sept 2024428
Aug 2024426
Jul 2024412
Jun 2024361
May 2024350
Apr 2024346
Mar 2024360
Feb 2024343
Jan 2024354
Dec 2023336
Nov 2023352
Oct 2023368
Sept 2023370
Aug 2023382
Jul 2023382
Jun 2023377
May 2023358
Apr 2023366
Mar 2023335
Feb 2023328
Jan 2023314
Dec 2022345
Nov 2022359
Oct 2022351
Sept 2022379
Aug 2022401
Jul 2022386
Jun 2022378
May 2022365
Apr 2022396
Mar 2022317
Feb 2022279
Jan 2022277
Dec 2021278
Nov 2021258
Oct 2021254
Sept 2021242
Aug 2021240
Jul 2021231
Jun 2021225
May 2021216
Apr 2021253
Mar 2021217
Feb 2021216
Jan 2021216
Dec 2020216
Nov 2020216
Oct 2020216
Sept 2020216
Aug 2020216
Jul 2020227
Jun 2020206
May 2020202
Apr 2020202
Mar 2020206
Feb 2020197
Jan 2020185
Dec 2019205
Nov 2019235
Oct 2019196
Sept 2019218
Aug 2019214
Jul 2019209
Jun 2019208
May 2019227
Apr 2019226
Mar 2019222
Feb 2019240
Jan 2019246
Dec 2018246
Nov 2018257
Oct 2018250
Sept 2018250
Aug 2018278
Jul 2018278
Jun 2018271
May 2018250
Apr 2018222
Mar 2018222
Feb 2018222
Jan 2018243
Dec 2017250
Nov 2017254
Oct 2017261
Sept 2017282
Aug 2017295
Jul 2017236
Jun 2017236
May 2017236
Apr 2017236
Mar 2017236
Feb 2017236
Jan 2017236
Dec 2016236
Nov 2016236
Oct 2016236
Sept 2016232
Aug 2016236
Jul 2016236
Jun 2016236
May 2016236
Apr 2016236
Mar 2016236
Feb 2016236
Jan 2016236
Dec 2015236
Nov 2015236
Oct 2015219
Sept 2015233
Aug 2015226
Jul 2015222
Jun 2015231
May 2015236
Apr 2015213
Mar 2015213
Feb 2015213
Jan 2015222
Dec 2014196
Nov 2014213
Oct 2014213
Sept 2014222
Jul 2014227
Jun 2014213
May 2014220
Apr 2014253
Mar 2014207
Feb 2014230
Dec 2013205
Nov 2013206
Oct 2013247
Sept 2013249
Aug 2013240
Jul 2013249
Jun 2013249
May 2013249
Apr 2013253
Mar 2013219
Feb 2013213
Jan 2013262
Dec 2012275
Nov 2012255
Oct 2012272
Sept 2012291
Jul 2012298
Jun 2012303
May 2012260
Apr 2012227
Mar 2012227
Feb 2012227
Jan 2012227
Dec 2011227
Nov 2011182
Oct 2011174
Sept 2011187
Aug 2011187
Jul 2011193
Jun 2011187
May 2011185
Apr 2011196
Mar 2011196
Feb 2011170
Jan 2011170
Dec 2010171
Nov 2010174
Oct 2010186
Sept 2010198
Aug 2010198
Jul 2010198
Jun 2010198
May 2010198
Apr 2010198
Mar 2010198
Feb 2010198
Jan 2010200
Nov 2009151
Oct 2009190
Sept 2009214
Aug 2009213
May 2009196
Apr 2009196
Mar 2009170
Feb 2009172
Jan 2009178
Dec 2008180
Nov 2008198
Oct 2008186
Sept 2008205
Aug 2008200
Jul 2008192
Jun 2008194
May 2008195
Apr 2008165
Mar 2008112
Feb 2008150
Jan 2008105
Dec 2007130
Nov 2007132
Oct 2007143
Sept 2007140
Aug 2007133
Jul 2007135
Jun 2007144
May 2007159
Apr 2007152
Mar 2007128
Feb 2007130
Jan 2007132
Dec 2006132
Nov 2006132
Oct 2006133
Sept 2006144
Aug 2006155
Jul 2006157
Jun 2006156
May 2006164
Apr 2006160
Mar 2006158
Feb 2006143
Jan 2006158
Dec 2005158
Nov 2005168
Oct 2005172
Sept 2005263
Aug 2005216
Jul 2005194
Jun 2005195
May 2005183
Apr 2005180
Mar 2005175
Feb 2005167
Jan 2005166
Dec 2004164
Nov 2004155
Oct 2004163
Sept 2004132
Aug 2004130
Jul 2004121
Jun 2004118
May 2004132
Apr 2004122
Mar 2004107
Feb 200499.7
Jan 200497
Dec 200391.6
Nov 2003117
Oct 2003119
Sept 2003131
Aug 2003151
Jul 2003150
Jun 2003149
May 2003157
Apr 2003158
Mar 2003158
Feb 2003153
Jan 2003149

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-135-135-retail-kg.