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Rice (imported) in Gorom Gorom

SAHEL, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 13% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

435–583

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

396–662

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 435 and 583 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 396 and 662 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gorom Gorom: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 13% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 435 and 583 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 396 and 662 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 1,135); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 470–540 500 442–611 583 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 453–559 499 327–692 619 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 435–583 497 346–766 623 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 401–626 498 256–853 636 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 396–662 501 280–1,135 575 –
Price history (71 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026494
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026487
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026473
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025600
Nov 2025600
Aug 2025600
Jun 2025533
May 2025403
Apr 2025598
Mar 2025527
Jan 2025549
Dec 2024683
Nov 2024625
Oct 2024630
Aug 2024543
Jul 2024600
Jun 2024600
May 2024600
Apr 2024575
Mar 2024600
Jan 2024440
Dec 2023500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023513
Aug 2023452
Jul 2023629
Jun 2023604
May 2023484
Apr 2023474
Mar 2023470
Feb 2023461
Jan 2023469
Dec 2022499
Nov 2022473
Oct 2022468
Sept 2022444
Aug 2022485
Jul 2022521
Jun 2022506
May 2022518
Apr 2022474
Mar 2022440
Jan 2022405
Dec 2021410
Nov 2021415
Oct 2021415
Sept 2021385
Aug 2021375
Jul 2021372
Jun 2021375
May 2021383
Apr 2021376
Mar 2021361
Feb 2021387
Jan 2021392
Dec 2020395
Nov 2020395
Oct 2020395
Sept 2020401
Aug 2020392
Jul 2020392
Jun 2020385
May 2020390
Apr 2020390

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-135-64-retail-kg.