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Sorghum (white) in Gourcy

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

128–198

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

127–215

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Gourcy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 128 and 198 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 127 and 215 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 155–184 170 146–198 250 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 141–191 168 106–215 236 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 128–198 164 81.9–210 224 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 120–204 163 69.8–210 220 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 127–215 165 89.4–289 226 –
Price history (163 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026177
Aug 2026170
Jul 2026175
Feb 2026165
Jan 2026157
Dec 2025158
Nov 2025164
Oct 2025188
Sept 2025203
Aug 2025213
Jul 2025233
Jun 2025237
May 2025248
Apr 2025254
Mar 2025250
Feb 2025265
Jan 2025242
Dec 2024234
Nov 2024234
Oct 2024273
Sept 2024275
Aug 2024303
Jul 2024293
Jun 2024259
May 2024255
Apr 2024252
Mar 2024242
Feb 2024236
Jan 2024223
Dec 2023220
Nov 2023222
Oct 2023220
Sept 2023223
Aug 2023220
Jul 2023221
Jun 2023218
May 2023219
Apr 2023220
Mar 2023236
Feb 2023236
Jan 2023222
Dec 2022219
Nov 2022231
Oct 2022256
Sept 2022275
Aug 2022300
Jul 2022289
Jun 2022287
May 2022288
Apr 2022286
Mar 2022251
Feb 2022236
Jan 2022206
Dec 2021202
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021186
Sept 2021180
Aug 2021181
Jul 2021169
Jun 2021170
May 2021166
Apr 2021155
Mar 2021155
Feb 2021154
Jan 2021133
Dec 2020119
Nov 2020120
Oct 2020120
Sept 2020147
Aug 2020151
Jul 2020141
Jun 2020119
May 2020124
Apr 2020124
Mar 2020118
Feb 2020118
Jan 2020117
Dec 2019112
Nov 2019113
Oct 2019120
Sept 2019125
Aug 2019126
Jul 2019131
Jun 2019134
May 2019136
Apr 2019139
Mar 2019137
Feb 2019136
Jan 2019142
Dec 2018142
Nov 2018156
Oct 2018175
Sept 2018193
Aug 2018200
Jul 2018205
Jun 2018198
May 2018199
Apr 2018198
Mar 2018197
Feb 2018191
Jan 2018184
Dec 2017177
Nov 2017174
Oct 2017174
Sept 2017191
Aug 2017191
Jul 2017176
Jun 2017182
May 2017180
Apr 2017176
Mar 2017177
Feb 2017161
Jan 2017158
Dec 2016158
Nov 2016158
Oct 2016160
Sept 2016162
Aug 2016169
Jul 2016176
Jun 2016176
May 2016176
Apr 2016172
Mar 2016155
Feb 2016147
Jan 2016152
Dec 2015141
Nov 2015141
Oct 2015147
Sept 2015150
Aug 2015152
Jul 2015159
Jun 2015159
May 2015157
Apr 2015145
Mar 2015142
Feb 2015138
Jan 2015154
Dec 2014131
Nov 2014135
Oct 2014146
Sept 2014150
Jul 2014159
Jun 2014159
May 2014159
Apr 2014159
Mar 2014161
Feb 2014150
Dec 2013140
Nov 2013141
Oct 2013147
Sept 2013155
Aug 2013158
Jul 2013160
Jun 2013159
May 2013162
Apr 2013159
Mar 2013162
Feb 2013169
Jan 2013152
Dec 2012140
Nov 2012138
Oct 2012175
Sept 2012207

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-136-135-retail-kg.