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Rice (imported) in Gourcy

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Stress August 2026: 5% above the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

479–588

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

445–640

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

23%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 479 and 588 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 445 and 640 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 23%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Gourcy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% above the usual level for that time of year (stress). For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 479 and 588 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 445 and 640 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 23%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 934); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 494–571 539 484–615 514 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 488–579 537 481–671 515 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 479–588 530 471–659 516 23%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 475–605 529 465–729 518 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 445–640 528 372–934 524 –
Price history (74 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026575
Aug 2026550
Jul 2026500
Feb 2026420
Jan 2026420
Dec 2025420
Nov 2025420
Oct 2025420
Sept 2025420
Aug 2025420
Jul 2025420
Jun 2025460
May 2025520
Apr 2025528
Mar 2025520
Feb 2025520
Jan 2025520
Dec 2024520
Nov 2024520
Oct 2024520
Sept 2024520
Aug 2024544
Jul 2024580
Jun 2024560
May 2024560
Apr 2024560
Mar 2024526
Feb 2024490
Jan 2024490
Dec 2023470
Nov 2023470
Oct 2023470
Sept 2023470
Aug 2023470
Jul 2023470
Jun 2023470
May 2023470
Apr 2023470
Mar 2023470
Feb 2023460
Jan 2023460
Dec 2022460
Nov 2022460
Oct 2022460
Sept 2022460
Aug 2022460
Jul 2022460
Jun 2022460
May 2022460
Apr 2022443
Mar 2022443
Feb 2022433
Jan 2022425
Dec 2021419
Nov 2021405
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021396
Jan 2021395
Dec 2020391
Nov 2020394
Oct 2020395
Sept 2020393
Aug 2020389
Jul 2020390
Jun 2020388
May 2020386
Apr 2020386

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-136-64-retail-kg.