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Maize (white) in Gourcy

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Irregular reports. This market published a price in 8 of the last 12 months. Prices here can change more, for example through insecurity or road closures; the forecast range is wider accordingly. In past tests, the 80 % range for next month held in 81% of cases in markets that report irregularly, against 77% in markets that report regularly.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

167–239

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

155–253

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 167 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Gourcy: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 167 and 239 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 155 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 186–224 202 180–230 308 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 182–234 203 180–244 306 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 167–239 201 120–284 283 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 157–243 200 118–298 277 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 155–253 202 112–313 284 –
Price history (163 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026193
Aug 2026200
Jul 2026214
Feb 2026214
Jan 2026216
Dec 2025184
Nov 2025209
Oct 2025244
Sept 2025252
Aug 2025254
Jul 2025288
Jun 2025295
May 2025291
Apr 2025291
Mar 2025291
Feb 2025282
Jan 2025267
Dec 2024266
Nov 2024290
Oct 2024316
Sept 2024318
Aug 2024319
Jul 2024320
Jun 2024279
May 2024258
Apr 2024252
Mar 2024253
Feb 2024253
Jan 2024253
Dec 2023252
Nov 2023253
Oct 2023253
Sept 2023253
Aug 2023252
Jul 2023253
Jun 2023253
May 2023254
Apr 2023258
Mar 2023260
Feb 2023261
Jan 2023260
Dec 2022260
Nov 2022257
Oct 2022316
Sept 2022313
Aug 2022317
Jul 2022316
Jun 2022315
May 2022314
Apr 2022312
Mar 2022273
Feb 2022257
Jan 2022257
Dec 2021260
Nov 2021233
Oct 2021242
Sept 2021238
Aug 2021221
Jul 2021223
Jun 2021216
May 2021214
Apr 2021203
Mar 2021204
Feb 2021184
Jan 2021179
Dec 2020171
Nov 2020181
Oct 2020183
Sept 2020183
Aug 2020185
Jul 2020179
Jun 2020155
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020150
Feb 2020148
Jan 2020148
Dec 2019147
Nov 2019147
Oct 2019148
Sept 2019152
Aug 2019154
Jul 2019154
Jun 2019149
May 2019155
Apr 2019157
Mar 2019150
Feb 2019143
Jan 2019150
Dec 2018150
Nov 2018160
Oct 2018186
Sept 2018167
Aug 2018199
Jul 2018199
Jun 2018206
May 2018203
Apr 2018193
Mar 2018185
Feb 2018185
Jan 2018186
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017178
Oct 2017187
Sept 2017202
Aug 2017189
Jul 2017187
Jun 2017193
May 2017187
Apr 2017187
Mar 2017170
Feb 2017168
Jan 2017168
Dec 2016168
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016182
Sept 2016190
Aug 2016185
Jul 2016188
Jun 2016187
May 2016187
Apr 2016183
Mar 2016165
Feb 2016156
Jan 2016163
Dec 2015150
Nov 2015161
Oct 2015187
Sept 2015169
Aug 2015169
Jul 2015169
Jun 2015169
May 2015157
Apr 2015145
Mar 2015145
Feb 2015145
Jan 2015164
Dec 2014137
Nov 2014145
Oct 2014150
Sept 2014150
Jul 2014150
Jun 2014156
May 2014163
Apr 2014169
Mar 2014154
Feb 2014152
Dec 2013157
Nov 2013155
Oct 2013156
Sept 2013170
Aug 2013168
Jul 2013169
Jun 2013173
May 2013171
Apr 2013169
Mar 2013171
Feb 2013171
Jan 2013157
Dec 2012169
Nov 2012169
Oct 2012182
Sept 2012216

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-136-67-retail-kg.