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Food basket in Gourcy

NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,930–4,995

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,606–5,102

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,862 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,930 and 4,995 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,606 and 5,102 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Gourcy: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,862 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,930 and 4,995 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,606 and 5,102 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,452); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,486–4,320 3,874 3,290–4,683
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,280–4,845 3,942 3,033–6,391
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,930–4,995 3,778 1,918–6,361
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,701–5,134 3,786 1,761–7,452
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,606–5,102 3,787 1,402–7,064
Cost history (118 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,907
Aug 20263,862
Jul 20263,856
Feb 20263,832
Jan 20263,701
Dec 20253,517
Nov 20253,478
Oct 20253,553
Sept 20253,854
Aug 20254,084
Jul 20254,972
Jun 20254,946
May 20255,036
Apr 20255,150
Mar 20255,329
Feb 20255,163
Jan 20254,497
Dec 20244,101
Nov 20244,708
Oct 20245,843
Sept 20246,205
Aug 20246,257
Jul 20245,665
Jun 20244,918
Mar 20244,402
Feb 20244,050
Jan 20243,934
Dec 20233,821
Nov 20233,671
Oct 20233,579
Sept 20233,584
Aug 20233,532
Jul 20233,550
Jun 20233,625
May 20233,634
Apr 20233,668
Mar 20234,222
Feb 20233,806
Jan 20233,797
Dec 20223,889
Nov 20224,247
Oct 20225,545
Sept 20225,666
Aug 20225,731
Jul 20225,835
Jun 20225,717
May 20225,652
Apr 20225,683
Mar 20224,659
Feb 20224,520
Jan 20224,370
Dec 20214,328
Nov 20214,119
Oct 20213,579
Sept 20213,490
Aug 20213,541
Jul 20213,519
Jun 20213,431
May 20213,526
Mar 20213,392
Feb 20213,383
Jan 20213,196
Dec 20202,954
Nov 20203,073
Oct 20203,178
Sept 20203,185
Aug 20202,900
Jul 20202,893
Apr 20202,636
Mar 20202,447
Feb 20202,478
Jan 20202,519
Dec 20192,504
Nov 20192,468
Oct 20192,458
Sept 20192,313
Aug 20191,948
Jul 20192,440
Jun 20192,806
May 20192,768
Mar 20192,874
Feb 20192,774
Jan 20193,084
Dec 20183,084
Nov 20183,067
Oct 20183,069
Sept 20183,196
Aug 20183,884
Jul 20184,194
May 20183,935
Mar 20183,679
Feb 20183,636
Jan 20183,510
Dec 20173,642
Nov 20173,731
Oct 20173,733
Sept 20173,785
Aug 20173,680
Jul 20173,541
May 20173,507
Mar 20173,152
Feb 20173,176
Jan 20172,993
Dec 20163,195
Nov 20163,437
Oct 20163,303
Sept 20163,203
Aug 20163,257
Apr 20162,894
Mar 20162,888
Feb 20162,647
Jan 20162,657
Dec 20152,513
Nov 20152,603
Oct 20152,652
Sept 20152,760
Aug 20152,856
Jul 20152,803

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508