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Sorghum (white) in Kongoussi

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 26% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

168–251

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

158–260

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 168 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Kongoussi: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 26% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 168 and 251 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 158 and 260 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 193–238 218 180–252 309 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 180–244 216 156–268 307 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 168–251 209 134–290 298 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 158–255 206 127–313 280 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 158–260 207 118–308 286 –
Price history (276 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026216
Aug 2026222
Jul 2026200
Jun 2026200
May 2026211
Apr 2026211
Mar 2026221
Feb 2026200
Jan 2026219
Dec 2025215
Nov 2025244
Oct 2025263
Sept 2025268
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025316
Jun 2025316
May 2025316
Apr 2025333
Mar 2025333
Feb 2025324
Jan 2025290
Dec 2024280
Nov 2024301
Oct 2024311
Sept 2024325
Aug 2024325
Jul 2024336
Jun 2024324
May 2024301
Apr 2024274
Mar 2024257
Feb 2024250
Jan 2024257
Dec 2023276
Nov 2023276
Oct 2023276
Sept 2023263
Aug 2023263
Jul 2023263
Jun 2023263
May 2023260
Apr 2023250
Mar 2023250
Feb 2023278
Jan 2023278
Dec 2022264
Nov 2022304
Oct 2022294
Sept 2022327
Aug 2022351
Jul 2022351
Jun 2022338
May 2022331
Apr 2022323
Mar 2022303
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022289
Dec 2021281
Nov 2021254
Oct 2021231
Sept 2021192
Aug 2021225
Jul 2021221
Jun 2021186
May 2021184
Apr 2021177
Mar 2021169
Feb 2021158
Jan 2021158
Dec 2020158
Nov 2020170
Oct 2020170
Sept 2020182
Aug 2020170
Jul 2020166
Jun 2020160
May 2020158
Apr 2020158
Mar 2020157
Feb 2020157
Jan 2020142
Dec 2019128
Nov 2019145
Oct 2019158
Sept 2019157
Aug 2019155
Jul 2019155
Jun 2019158
May 2019158
Apr 2019158
Mar 2019158
Feb 2019158
Jan 2019163
Dec 2018163
Nov 2018191
Oct 2018211
Sept 2018219
Aug 2018224
Jul 2018221
Jun 2018213
May 2018224
Apr 2018223
Mar 2018220
Feb 2018223
Jan 2018201
Dec 2017197
Nov 2017197
Oct 2017221
Sept 2017211
Aug 2017204
Jul 2017193
Jun 2017184
May 2017184
Apr 2017175
Mar 2017166
Feb 2017157
Jan 2017166
Dec 2016166
Nov 2016171
Oct 2016171
Sept 2016184
Aug 2016178
Jul 2016184
Jun 2016184
May 2016184
Apr 2016158
Mar 2016155
Feb 2016154
Jan 2016154
Dec 2015154
Nov 2015157
Oct 2015154
Sept 2015154
Aug 2015167
Jul 2015167
Jun 2015167
May 2015154
Apr 2015154
Mar 2015155
Feb 2015155
Jan 2015162
Dec 2014144
Nov 2014168
Oct 2014154
Sept 2014167
Jul 2014167
Jun 2014168
May 2014167
Apr 2014177
Mar 2014167
Feb 2014167
Dec 2013147
Nov 2013151
Oct 2013158
Sept 2013180
Aug 2013180
Jul 2013177
Jun 2013181
May 2013177
Apr 2013177
Mar 2013177
Feb 2013177
Jan 2013176
Dec 2012175
Nov 2012196
Oct 2012206
Sept 2012221
Aug 2012221
Jul 2012225
Jun 2012249
May 2012238
Apr 2012235
Mar 2012208
Feb 2012192
Jan 2012188
Dec 2011187
Nov 2011176
Oct 2011199
Sept 2011174
Aug 2011158
Jul 2011137
Jun 2011138
May 2011139
Apr 2011141
Mar 2011139
Feb 2011139
Jan 2011125
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010138
Oct 2010141
Sept 2010149
Aug 2010150
Jul 2010150
Jun 2010150
May 2010148
Apr 2010150
Mar 2010155
Feb 2010160
Jan 2010153
May 2009162
Apr 2009161
Mar 2009148
Feb 2009147
Jan 2009136
Dec 2008106
Nov 2008112
Oct 2008146
Sept 2008174
Aug 2008162
Jul 2008163
Jun 2008165
May 2008149
Apr 2008133
Mar 2008122
Feb 2008116
Jan 2008108
Dec 2007114
Nov 2007121
Oct 2007112
Sept 2007108
Aug 2007109
Jul 2007108
Jun 2007114
May 2007114
Apr 2007108
Mar 2007105
Feb 2007110
Jan 2007105
Dec 200696.7
Nov 2006101
Oct 2006108
Sept 2006114
Aug 2006122
Jul 2006126
Jun 2006107
May 2006121
Apr 2006109
Mar 2006108
Feb 2006105
Jan 2006105
Dec 200597.8
Nov 200591.6
Oct 2005134
Sept 2005202
Aug 2005217
Jul 2005228
Jun 2005214
May 2005172
Apr 2005163
Mar 2005142
Feb 2005118
Jan 2005116
Dec 2004119
Nov 2004117
Oct 2004120
Sept 200499.6
Aug 2004102
Jul 200485.7
Jun 200482.3
May 200483.6
Apr 200494.3
Mar 200481.4
Feb 200476.7
Jan 200476.2
Dec 200396.4
Nov 200376.7
Oct 200397.8
Sept 200395.9
Aug 2003108
Jul 2003136
Jun 2003136
May 2003137
Apr 2003138
Mar 2003138
Feb 2003134
Jan 2003129

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-137-135-retail-kg.