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Food basket in Kongoussi

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,459–5,186

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,010–5,622

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,320 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,459 and 5,186 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,010 and 5,622 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kongoussi: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,320 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,459 and 5,186 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,010 and 5,622 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,00010,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,940–4,793 4,290 3,808–5,016
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,683–5,085 4,312 3,376–5,262
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,459–5,186 4,212 2,967–6,150
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,261–5,478 4,199 2,608–7,957
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,010–5,622 4,222 1,949–7,244
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,541
Aug 20264,320
Jul 20264,320
Jun 20264,365
May 20264,597
Apr 20264,597
Mar 20264,602
Feb 20264,464
Jan 20264,561
Dec 20254,438
Nov 20254,470
Oct 20254,670
Sept 20255,153
Aug 20255,498
Jul 20256,001
Jun 20256,237
May 20256,271
Apr 20256,268
Mar 20256,304
Feb 20256,167
Jan 20255,584
Dec 20245,281
Nov 20245,204
Oct 20246,482
Sept 20246,812
Aug 20246,821
Jul 20245,627
Jun 20244,931
May 20245,139
Apr 20244,980
Mar 20244,666
Feb 20244,589
Jan 20244,492
Dec 20234,361
Nov 20234,037
Oct 20233,914
Sept 20233,629
Aug 20234,135
Jul 20234,140
Jun 20234,140
May 20234,178
Apr 20234,185
Mar 20234,423
Feb 20234,532
Jan 20234,454
Dec 20224,470
Nov 20224,923
Oct 20224,928
Sept 20225,202
Aug 20225,345
Jul 20225,405
Jun 20225,281
May 20225,347
Apr 20225,238
Mar 20224,926
Feb 20224,365
Jan 20224,801
Dec 20214,717
Nov 20214,281
Oct 20213,813
Sept 20213,408
Aug 20213,351
Jul 20213,231
Jun 20213,111
May 20213,043
Apr 20212,985
Mar 20212,890
Feb 20212,612
Jan 20212,490
Dec 20202,590
Nov 20202,658
Oct 20202,824
Sept 20202,651
Aug 20202,358
Jul 20202,580
Jun 20202,359
May 20202,363
Apr 20202,363
Mar 20202,324
Feb 20202,286
Jan 20202,039
Dec 20191,862
Nov 20192,022
Oct 20192,300
Sept 20192,289
Aug 20192,278
Jul 20192,267
Jun 20192,250
May 20192,250
Apr 20192,277
Mar 20192,257
Feb 20192,245
Jan 20192,199
Dec 20182,199
Nov 20182,660
Oct 20183,032
Sept 20183,479
Aug 20183,484
Jul 20183,533
Jun 20183,918
May 20183,630
Apr 20183,630
Mar 20183,606
Feb 20183,610
Jan 20183,429
Dec 20173,387
Nov 20173,459
Oct 20173,733
Sept 20173,715
Aug 20173,403
Jul 20173,285
Jun 20173,285
May 20173,285
Apr 20172,983
Mar 20172,944
Feb 20172,652
Jan 20172,640
Dec 20162,640
Nov 20162,580
Oct 20162,630
Sept 20162,904
Aug 20163,096
Jun 20162,964
May 20162,940
Apr 20162,917
Mar 20162,828
Feb 20162,723
Jan 20162,673
Dec 20152,636
Nov 20152,748
Oct 20152,840
Sept 20152,874
Aug 20152,874
Jul 20152,874
Jun 20152,718
May 20152,418

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508