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Sorghum (white) in Koudougou

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 25% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

185–253

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

171–261

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 185 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Koudougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 25% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 185 and 253 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 171 and 261 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 205–237 220 191–261 305 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 192–243 220 169–285 303 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 185–253 218 162–299 297 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 173–256 217 140–320 278 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 171–261 219 131–321 279 –
Price history (276 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026225
Aug 2026222
Jul 2026222
Jun 2026222
May 2026233
Apr 2026230
Mar 2026227
Feb 2026227
Jan 2026259
Dec 2025253
Nov 2025270
Oct 2025262
Sept 2025271
Aug 2025261
Jul 2025271
Jun 2025268
May 2025275
Apr 2025285
Mar 2025284
Feb 2025275
Jan 2025267
Dec 2024286
Nov 2024324
Oct 2024298
Sept 2024297
Aug 2024297
Jul 2024284
Jun 2024260
May 2024256
Apr 2024258
Mar 2024252
Feb 2024258
Jan 2024265
Dec 2023258
Nov 2023258
Oct 2023250
Sept 2023242
Aug 2023259
Jul 2023244
Jun 2023260
May 2023258
Apr 2023258
Mar 2023267
Feb 2023267
Jan 2023265
Dec 2022269
Nov 2022296
Oct 2022370
Sept 2022368
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022309
Jun 2022302
May 2022298
Apr 2022295
Mar 2022258
Feb 2022231
Jan 2022219
Dec 2021218
Nov 2021211
Oct 2021205
Sept 2021205
Aug 2021202
Jul 2021195
Jun 2021206
May 2021198
Apr 2021185
Mar 2021178
Feb 2021166
Jan 2021154
Dec 2020152
Nov 2020162
Oct 2020168
Sept 2020168
Aug 2020160
Jul 2020152
Jun 2020149
May 2020146
Apr 2020146
Mar 2020140
Feb 2020135
Jan 2020135
Dec 2019135
Nov 2019139
Oct 2019152
Sept 2019156
Aug 2019168
Jul 2019168
Jun 2019168
May 2019168
Apr 2019168
Mar 2019168
Feb 2019168
Jan 2019168
Dec 2018168
Nov 2018196
Oct 2018199
Sept 2018202
Aug 2018202
Jul 2018204
Jun 2018202
May 2018202
Apr 2018202
Mar 2018202
Feb 2018210
Jan 2018177
Dec 2017168
Nov 2017196
Oct 2017202
Sept 2017202
Aug 2017194
Jul 2017185
Jun 2017185
May 2017185
Apr 2017173
Mar 2017168
Feb 2017167
Jan 2017160
Dec 2016160
Nov 2016162
Oct 2016162
Sept 2016167
Aug 2016167
Jul 2016168
Jun 2016168
May 2016173
Apr 2016168
Mar 2016158
Feb 2016152
Jan 2016168
Dec 2015168
Nov 2015168
Oct 2015185
Sept 2015185
Aug 2015185
Jul 2015185
Jun 2015185
May 2015177
Apr 2015168
Mar 2015168
Feb 2015168
Jan 2015156
Dec 2014184
Nov 2014168
Oct 2014168
Sept 2014168
Jul 2014168
Jun 2014168
May 2014168
Apr 2014176
Mar 2014168
Feb 2014160
Dec 2013145
Nov 2013152
Oct 2013158
Sept 2013162
Aug 2013160
Jul 2013167
Jun 2013168
May 2013168
Apr 2013176
Mar 2013168
Feb 2013168
Jan 2013186
Dec 2012175
Nov 2012191
Oct 2012216
Sept 2012231
Aug 2012215
Jul 2012212
Jun 2012205
May 2012216
Apr 2012212
Mar 2012197
Feb 2012177
Jan 2012171
Dec 2011177
Nov 2011172
Oct 2011167
Sept 2011149
Aug 2011143
Jul 2011134
Jun 2011137
May 2011138
Apr 2011137
Mar 2011136
Feb 2011132
Jan 2011126
Dec 2010125
Nov 2010126
Oct 2010132
Sept 2010140
Aug 2010145
Jul 2010141
Jun 2010144
May 2010145
Apr 2010146
Mar 2010152
Feb 2010149
Jan 2010154
May 2009147
Apr 2009154
Mar 2009152
Feb 2009141
Jan 2009130
Dec 2008106
Nov 2008124
Oct 2008137
Sept 2008161
Aug 2008159
Jul 2008162
Jun 2008167
May 2008148
Apr 2008132
Mar 200893.8
Feb 2008123
Jan 2008117
Dec 2007116
Nov 2007127
Oct 2007116
Sept 2007109
Aug 2007110
Jul 2007105
Jun 2007102
May 2007105
Apr 2007113
Mar 2007106
Feb 2007106
Jan 200786.2
Dec 200685.3
Nov 200687.7
Oct 200694.8
Sept 2006106
Aug 2006113
Jul 2006116
Jun 2006121
May 2006121
Apr 2006119
Mar 2006115
Feb 2006113
Jan 2006112
Dec 2005110
Nov 2005114
Oct 2005195
Sept 2005231
Aug 2005237
Jul 2005218
Jun 2005216
May 2005179
Apr 2005168
Mar 2005154
Feb 2005132
Jan 2005120
Dec 2004121
Nov 2004120
Oct 2004116
Sept 2004102
Aug 2004106
Jul 200487.6
Jun 200478
May 200483.4
Apr 200479.1
Mar 200478
Feb 200478
Jan 200477.8
Dec 200380.9
Nov 200384.8
Oct 200385.5
Sept 200394.4
Aug 200391.3
Jul 2003106
Jun 2003121
May 2003121
Apr 2003126
Mar 2003116
Feb 2003122
Jan 2003126

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-138-135-retail-kg.