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Rice (imported) in Koudougou

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

434–550

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

420–599

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 434 and 550 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 420 and 599 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Koudougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 11% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 434 and 550 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 420 and 599 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 839); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 464–523 496 446–562 558 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 456–534 494 409–613 566 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 434–550 487 363–648 556 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 426–572 485 359–710 556 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 420–599 488 356–839 567 –
Price history (77 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026450
May 2026450
Apr 2026450
Mar 2026450
Feb 2026450
Jan 2026450
Dec 2025450
Nov 2025475
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025475
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025525
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024550
Sept 2024550
Aug 2024550
Jul 2024550
Jun 2024513
May 2024538
Apr 2024550
Mar 2024550
Feb 2024550
Jan 2024550
Dec 2023475
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Aug 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022450
Aug 2022450
Jul 2022450
Jun 2022450
May 2022425
Apr 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021380
Aug 2021350
Jul 2021350
Jun 2021350
May 2021350
Apr 2021350
Mar 2021350
Feb 2021350
Jan 2021356
Dec 2020350
Nov 2020350
Oct 2020350
Sept 2020356
Aug 2020350
Jul 2020363
Jun 2020350
May 2020375
Apr 2020375

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-138-64-retail-kg.