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Rice (local) in Koudougou

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

386–442

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

380–474

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 386 and 442 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 380 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Koudougou: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 386 and 442 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 380 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 400–426 407 387–457 468 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 389–434 408 370–498 462 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 386–442 408 362–504 470 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 382–456 408 352–529 482 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 380–474 410 363–622 490 –
Price history (75 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026420
Aug 2026407
Jul 2026407
Jun 2026407
May 2026407
Apr 2026407
Mar 2026403
Feb 2026404
Jan 2026391
Dec 2025387
Nov 2025388
Oct 2025400
Sept 2025425
Aug 2025432
Jul 2025421
Jun 2025419
May 2025452
Apr 2025471
Mar 2025484
Feb 2025489
Jan 2025535
Dec 2024480
Nov 2024484
Aug 2024419
Jul 2024419
Jun 2024419
May 2024410
Apr 2024403
Mar 2024403
Feb 2024403
Jan 2024403
Dec 2023403
Nov 2023400
Oct 2023403
Sept 2023403
Aug 2023404
Jul 2023407
Jun 2023407
May 2023403
Apr 2023403
Mar 2023403
Feb 2023404
Jan 2023407
Dec 2022395
Nov 2022371
Oct 2022391
Sept 2022391
Aug 2022389
Jul 2022375
Jun 2022371
May 2022357
Apr 2022379
Mar 2022374
Feb 2022356
Jan 2022358
Dec 2021361
Nov 2021345
Oct 2021337
Sept 2021337
Aug 2021337
Jul 2021336
Jun 2021358
May 2021331
Apr 2021323
Mar 2021310
Feb 2021290
Jan 2021290
Dec 2020303
Nov 2020290
Oct 2020290
Sept 2020290
Aug 2020282
Jun 2020274
May 2020274
Apr 2020274

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-138-71-retail-kg.