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Food basket in Koudougou

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,196–4,740

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,917–5,094

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,804 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,196 and 4,740 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,917 and 5,094 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Koudougou: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,804 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,196 and 4,740 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,917 and 5,094 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,558); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,642–4,246 3,837 3,549–4,487
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,472–4,521 3,885 3,209–4,952
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,196–4,740 3,840 2,381–5,411
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,900–4,920 3,813 2,007–6,478
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,917–5,094 3,864 1,916–7,558
Cost history (126 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,068
Aug 20263,804
Jul 20263,820
Jun 20264,024
Apr 20264,024
Mar 20264,039
Feb 20264,051
Jan 20263,979
Dec 20253,991
Nov 20254,031
Oct 20254,166
Sept 20254,703
Aug 20254,976
Jul 20255,000
Jun 20254,963
May 20255,341
Apr 20255,423
Mar 20255,417
Feb 20255,333
Jan 20255,220
Dec 20245,261
Nov 20245,370
Oct 20245,056
Sept 20245,266
Aug 20245,105
Jul 20244,816
Jun 20244,706
Apr 20244,500
Mar 20244,403
Feb 20244,372
Jan 20244,340
Dec 20234,226
Nov 20234,243
Oct 20234,178
Sept 20234,123
Aug 20234,188
Jul 20234,405
Jun 20234,438
May 20234,529
Apr 20234,604
Mar 20234,610
Feb 20234,670
Jan 20234,687
Dec 20224,719
Nov 20225,410
Oct 20225,743
Sept 20225,897
Aug 20225,960
Jul 20225,457
May 20225,456
Apr 20225,324
Mar 20224,816
Feb 20224,280
Jan 20224,312
Dec 20214,253
Nov 20213,973
Oct 20213,773
Sept 20213,958
Aug 20213,928
Jul 20213,791
Apr 20213,707
Mar 20213,586
Feb 20213,422
Jan 20213,439
Dec 20203,317
Nov 20203,278
Oct 20203,434
Sept 20203,518
Aug 20203,359
Jul 20203,062
Apr 20202,837
Mar 20202,686
Feb 20202,503
Jan 20202,454
Dec 20192,298
Nov 20192,296
Oct 20192,644
Sept 20192,437
Aug 20192,614
Jul 20192,614
May 20192,851
Apr 20192,743
Mar 20192,767
Feb 20192,995
Jan 20193,182
Dec 20183,182
Nov 20183,506
Oct 20183,594
Sept 20183,707
Aug 20183,707
Jul 20183,707
Jun 20183,503
Apr 20183,675
Mar 20183,680
Feb 20183,439
Jan 20183,422
Dec 20173,454
Nov 20173,706
Oct 20173,830
Sept 20173,847
Aug 20173,507
Jul 20173,374
Jun 20173,374
May 20173,319
Apr 20173,107
Mar 20172,994
Feb 20172,846
Jan 20172,963
Dec 20162,910
Nov 20162,822
Oct 20162,774
Sept 20162,839
Aug 20162,839
Jun 20162,761
May 20162,711
Apr 20162,711
Mar 20162,759
Feb 20162,711
Jan 20162,711
Dec 20152,783
Nov 20152,882
Oct 20152,893
Sept 20152,915
Aug 20152,915
Jul 20152,893
May 20152,786

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508