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Beans (niebe) in Ouagadougo (Sankaryare)

CENTRE, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

418–578

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

392–619

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 418 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 392 and 619 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Ouagadougo (Sankaryare): XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 10% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 418 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 392 and 619 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 466–543 500 441–595 669 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 446–559 499 407–641 664 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 418–578 489 340–633 608 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 374–597 482 233–686 592 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 392–619 497 305–629 609 –
Price history (136 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026483
Aug 2026504
Jul 2026549
Jun 2026548
May 2026558
Apr 2026503
Mar 2026545
Feb 2026537
Jan 2026491
Dec 2025491
Nov 2025500
Oct 2025622
Sept 2025667
Aug 2025669
Jul 2025668
Jun 2025677
May 2025723
Apr 2025749
Mar 2025713
Feb 2025765
Jan 2025652
Dec 2024623
Nov 2024645
Oct 2024769
Sept 2024841
Aug 2024702
Jul 2024670
Jun 2024600
May 2024544
Apr 2024534
Mar 2024507
Feb 2024492
Jan 2024471
Dec 2023427
Nov 2023435
Oct 2023406
Sept 2023405
Aug 2023403
Jul 2023419
Jun 2023451
May 2023449
Apr 2023428
Mar 2023467
Feb 2023453
Jan 2023453
Dec 2022444
Nov 2022482
Oct 2022527
Sept 2022569
Aug 2022536
Jul 2022687
Jun 2022659
May 2022659
Apr 2022659
Mar 2022652
Feb 2022629
Jan 2022586
Dec 2021571
Nov 2021552
Oct 2021566
Sept 2021580
Aug 2021542
Jul 2021524
Jun 2021526
May 2021443
Apr 2021421
Mar 2021427
Feb 2021412
Jan 2021390
Dec 2020352
Nov 2020347
Oct 2020348
Sept 2020348
Aug 2020348
Jul 2020356
Jun 2020344
May 2020356
Apr 2020356
Mar 2020347
Feb 2020347
Jan 2020347
Dec 2019338
Nov 2019320
Oct 2019424
Sept 2019331
Aug 2019331
Jul 2019334
Jun 2019334
May 2019370
Apr 2019362
Mar 2019355
Feb 2019343
Jan 2019320
Dec 2018320
Nov 2018384
Oct 2018423
Sept 2018419
Aug 2018419
Jul 2018418
Jun 2018396
May 2018412
Apr 2018416
Mar 2018427
Feb 2018402
Jan 2018379
Dec 2017379
Nov 2017379
Oct 2017379
Sept 2017383
Aug 2017383
Jul 2017378
Jun 2017377
May 2017373
Apr 2017373
Mar 2017377
Feb 2017365
Jan 2017321
Dec 2016331
Nov 2016346
Oct 2016365
Sept 2016387
Aug 2016378
Jun 2016383
May 2016387
Apr 2016383
Mar 2016375
Feb 2016372
Jan 2016327
Dec 2015331
Nov 2015331
Oct 2015353
Sept 2015364
Aug 2015344
Jul 2015319
Jun 2015319
May 2015313

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-139-120-retail-kg.