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Sorghum (white) in Ouagadougo (Sankaryare)

CENTRE, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 31% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

212–287

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

193–307

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 212 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 307 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Ouagadougo (Sankaryare): XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 31% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 9% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 212 and 287 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 193 and 307 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 233–277 252 210–296 370 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 223–281 252 201–311 365 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 212–287 251 181–309 356 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 191–298 249 124–360 351 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 193–307 253 139–378 355 –
Price history (276 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026250
Aug 2026254
Jul 2026246
Jun 2026247
May 2026278
Apr 2026237
Mar 2026263
Feb 2026277
Jan 2026261
Dec 2025279
Nov 2025269
Oct 2025286
Sept 2025302
Aug 2025334
Jul 2025336
Jun 2025337
May 2025354
Apr 2025356
Mar 2025371
Feb 2025366
Jan 2025357
Dec 2024307
Nov 2024346
Oct 2024375
Sept 2024373
Aug 2024390
Jul 2024388
Jun 2024358
May 2024343
Apr 2024334
Mar 2024346
Feb 2024334
Jan 2024332
Dec 2023333
Nov 2023336
Oct 2023344
Sept 2023342
Aug 2023342
Jul 2023336
Jun 2023324
May 2023324
Apr 2023324
Mar 2023327
Feb 2023258
Jan 2023306
Dec 2022315
Nov 2022377
Oct 2022387
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022440
Jul 2022440
Jun 2022408
May 2022446
Apr 2022463
Mar 2022428
Feb 2022285
Jan 2022290
Dec 2021281
Nov 2021252
Oct 2021241
Sept 2021245
Aug 2021235
Jul 2021230
Jun 2021236
May 2021227
Apr 2021225
Mar 2021226
Feb 2021227
Jan 2021227
Dec 2020224
Nov 2020227
Oct 2020231
Sept 2020230
Aug 2020230
Jul 2020211
Jun 2020197
May 2020201
Apr 2020201
Mar 2020197
Feb 2020197
Jan 2020197
Dec 2019183
Nov 2019173
Oct 2019175
Sept 2019182
Aug 2019194
Jul 2019208
Jun 2019218
May 2019227
Apr 2019209
Mar 2019220
Feb 2019216
Jan 2019225
Dec 2018225
Nov 2018229
Oct 2018243
Sept 2018235
Aug 2018246
Jul 2018241
Jun 2018237
May 2018225
Apr 2018226
Mar 2018227
Feb 2018226
Jan 2018216
Dec 2017213
Nov 2017212
Oct 2017217
Sept 2017227
Aug 2017211
Jul 2017202
Jun 2017207
May 2017212
Apr 2017193
Mar 2017182
Feb 2017185
Jan 2017175
Dec 2016185
Nov 2016188
Oct 2016188
Sept 2016189
Aug 2016186
Jul 2016183
Jun 2016179
May 2016184
Apr 2016188
Mar 2016194
Feb 2016186
Jan 2016190
Dec 2015188
Nov 2015186
Oct 2015195
Sept 2015188
Aug 2015188
Jul 2015184
Jun 2015187
May 2015190
Apr 2015186
Mar 2015186
Feb 2015186
Jan 2015200
Dec 2014202
Nov 2014221
Oct 2014208
Sept 2014215
Jul 2014219
Jun 2014149
May 2014213
Apr 2014237
Mar 2014219
Feb 2014205
Dec 2013194
Nov 2013210
Oct 2013213
Sept 2013220
Aug 2013221
Jul 2013227
Jun 2013221
May 2013223
Apr 2013237
Mar 2013222
Feb 2013222
Jan 2013234
Dec 2012223
Nov 2012240
Oct 2012252
Sept 2012255
Aug 2012262
Jul 2012258
Jun 2012246
May 2012250
Apr 2012238
Mar 2012203
Feb 2012217
Jan 2012212
Dec 2011212
Nov 2011212
Oct 2011214
Sept 2011214
Aug 2011213
Jul 2011214
Jun 2011189
May 2011183
Apr 2011181
Mar 2011183
Feb 2011196
Jan 2011187
Dec 2010176
Nov 2010181
Oct 2010185
Sept 2010183
Aug 2010181
Jul 2010181
Jun 2010180
May 2010181
Apr 2010183
Mar 2010199
Feb 2010208
Jan 2010178
May 2009180
Apr 2009181
Mar 2009181
Feb 2009176
Jan 2009160
Dec 2008158
Nov 2008163
Oct 2008173
Sept 2008191
Aug 2008184
Jul 2008172
Jun 2008169
May 2008155
Apr 2008147
Mar 2008141
Feb 2008134
Jan 2008130
Dec 2007139
Nov 2007155
Oct 2007133
Sept 2007133
Aug 2007138
Jul 2007117
Jun 2007122
May 2007115
Apr 2007122
Mar 2007115
Feb 2007120
Jan 2007120
Dec 2006115
Nov 2006123
Oct 2006127
Sept 2006131
Aug 2006123
Jul 2006131
Jun 2006188
May 2006188
Apr 2006190
Mar 2006163
Feb 2006151
Jan 2006165
Dec 2005182
Nov 2005189
Oct 2005245
Sept 2005234
Aug 2005250
Jul 2005249
Jun 2005234
May 2005194
Apr 2005172
Mar 2005164
Feb 2005146
Jan 2005137
Dec 2004130
Nov 2004142
Oct 2004140
Sept 2004124
Aug 2004102
Jul 2004104
Jun 2004106
May 2004107
Apr 2004106
Mar 2004106
Feb 2004106
Jan 2004108
Dec 2003112
Nov 2003125
Oct 2003125
Sept 2003125
Aug 2003142
Jul 2003145
Jun 2003145
May 2003156
Apr 2003155
Mar 2003150
Feb 2003159
Jan 2003147

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-139-135-retail-kg.