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Food basket in Ouagadougo (Sankaryare)

CENTRE, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,753–5,270

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

3,205–5,633

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,315 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,753 and 5,270 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,205 and 5,633 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Ouagadougo (Sankaryare): XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,315 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,753 and 5,270 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 3,205 and 5,633 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,636); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 4,147–4,789 4,332 3,980–5,180
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,943–5,027 4,386 3,240–5,982
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,753–5,270 4,389 2,967–6,150
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,389–5,412 4,299 2,438–6,702
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 3,205–5,633 4,327 2,259–8,636
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,805
Aug 20264,315
Jul 20264,216
Jun 20264,250
May 20264,412
Apr 20264,073
Mar 20264,317
Feb 20264,339
Jan 20264,220
Dec 20254,256
Nov 20254,512
Oct 20254,828
Sept 20255,233
Aug 20255,236
Jul 20255,654
Jun 20256,043
May 20256,161
Apr 20256,328
Mar 20256,443
Feb 20256,549
Jan 20256,190
Dec 20246,197
Nov 20246,393
Oct 20246,748
Sept 20247,250
Aug 20247,072
Jul 20246,570
Jun 20245,388
May 20245,167
Apr 20245,101
Mar 20245,089
Feb 20244,966
Jan 20244,928
Dec 20234,873
Nov 20234,863
Oct 20234,763
Sept 20234,881
Aug 20234,889
Jul 20234,702
Jun 20234,772
May 20234,648
Apr 20234,550
Mar 20234,765
Feb 20234,823
Jan 20234,823
Dec 20225,611
Nov 20226,136
Oct 20226,337
Sept 20226,364
Aug 20226,581
Jul 20226,469
Jun 20226,046
May 20226,118
Apr 20226,190
Mar 20226,094
Feb 20225,428
Jan 20224,703
Dec 20215,432
Nov 20214,678
Oct 20213,995
Sept 20214,020
Aug 20213,964
Jul 20213,919
Jun 20213,911
May 20213,701
Apr 20213,662
Mar 20213,685
Feb 20213,730
Jan 20213,690
Dec 20203,586
Nov 20203,613
Oct 20203,758
Sept 20203,806
Aug 20203,758
Jul 20203,389
Jun 20203,271
May 20203,209
Apr 20203,209
Mar 20203,181
Feb 20203,193
Jan 20203,193
Dec 20193,008
Nov 20192,676
Oct 20193,151
Sept 20193,092
Aug 20193,104
Jul 20193,253
Jun 20193,373
May 20193,426
Apr 20193,316
Mar 20193,243
Feb 20193,305
Jan 20193,312
Dec 20183,312
Nov 20183,667
Oct 20183,821
Sept 20183,826
Aug 20183,826
Jul 20183,944
Jun 20183,929
May 20183,838
Apr 20183,821
Mar 20183,877
Feb 20183,760
Jan 20183,562
Dec 20173,694
Nov 20173,778
Oct 20173,850
Sept 20173,845
Aug 20173,689
Jul 20173,512
Jun 20173,475
May 20173,515
Apr 20173,347
Mar 20173,223
Feb 20173,069
Jan 20172,846
Dec 20162,948
Nov 20163,035
Oct 20163,081
Sept 20163,193
Aug 20163,116
Jun 20163,065
May 20163,145
Apr 20163,113
Mar 20163,027
Feb 20162,998
Jan 20162,917
Dec 20152,876
Nov 20153,080
Oct 20153,155
Sept 20153,115
Aug 20153,079
Jul 20152,986
Jun 20153,022
May 20152,915

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508