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Sorghum (white) in Tenkodogo

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

233–327

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

235–341

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 327 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 235 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Tenkodogo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 233 and 327 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 235 and 341 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 265–317 294 248–325 375 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 250–320 293 224–344 364 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 233–327 289 175–363 353 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 230–331 285 211–368 346 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 235–341 286 214–389 348 –
Price history (167 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026310
Aug 2026297
Jul 2026286
Jun 2026309
May 2026290
Apr 2026258
Mar 2026293
Feb 2026283
Jan 2026284
Dec 2025311
Nov 2025316
Oct 2025320
Sept 2025306
Aug 2025320
Jul 2025319
Jun 2025363
May 2025350
Apr 2025358
Mar 2025343
Feb 2025342
Jan 2025334
Dec 2024366
Nov 2024347
Oct 2024365
Sept 2024376
Aug 2024366
Jul 2024359
Jun 2024328
May 2024315
Apr 2024303
Mar 2024303
Feb 2024291
Jan 2024289
Dec 2023275
Nov 2023283
Oct 2023271
Sept 2023319
Aug 2023299
Jul 2023293
Jun 2023268
May 2023269
Apr 2023277
Mar 2023287
Feb 2023281
Jan 2023251
Dec 2022284
Nov 2022308
Oct 2022342
Sept 2022373
Aug 2022375
Jul 2022354
Jun 2022324
May 2022313
Apr 2022301
Mar 2022277
Feb 2022231
Jan 2022213
Dec 2021199
Nov 2021194
Oct 2021213
Sept 2021208
Aug 2021206
Jul 2021191
Jun 2021192
May 2021190
Apr 2021199
Mar 2021164
Feb 2021181
Jan 2021187
Dec 2020169
Nov 2020183
Oct 2020178
Sept 2020183
Aug 2020195
Jul 2020161
Jun 2020165
May 2020150
Apr 2020150
Mar 2020146
Feb 2020142
Jan 2020149
Dec 2019136
Nov 2019144
Oct 2019146
Sept 2019151
Aug 2019164
Jul 2019159
Jun 2019166
May 2019172
Apr 2019139
Mar 2019145
Feb 2019145
Jan 2019172
Dec 2018172
Nov 2018170
Oct 2018205
Sept 2018205
Aug 2018189
Jul 2018205
Jun 2018189
May 2018188
Apr 2018186
Mar 2018193
Feb 2018206
Jan 2018185
Dec 2017176
Nov 2017181
Oct 2017164
Sept 2017177
Aug 2017186
Jul 2017188
Jun 2017182
May 2017182
Apr 2017183
Mar 2017182
Feb 2017176
Jan 2017177
Dec 2016178
Nov 2016177
Oct 2016180
Sept 2016170
Aug 2016174
Jul 2016172
Jun 2016171
May 2016176
Apr 2016174
Mar 2016177
Feb 2016168
Jan 2016175
Dec 2015171
Nov 2015168
Oct 2015173
Sept 2015175
Aug 2015181
Jul 2015186
Jun 2015176
May 2015172
Apr 2015171
Mar 2015158
Feb 2015172
Jan 2015156
Dec 2014184
Nov 2014173
Oct 2014186
Sept 2014175
Jul 2014173
Jun 2014156
May 2014162
Apr 2014183
Mar 2014166
Feb 2014154
Dec 2013159
Nov 2013176
Oct 2013173
Sept 2013184
Aug 2013186
Jul 2013185
Jun 2013171
May 2013168
Apr 2013183
Mar 2013186
Feb 2013188
Jan 2013183
Dec 2012197
Nov 2012211
Oct 2012204
Sept 2012216

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-140-135-retail-kg.