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Rice (local) in Tenkodogo

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 18% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

317–391

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

294–420

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 294 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Tenkodogo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 18% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 8% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 317 and 391 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 294 and 420 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 575); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 333–377 349 315–429 428 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 325–387 350 293–479 428 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 317–391 349 277–469 420 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 304–403 347 252–506 411 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 294–420 349 226–575 412 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026383
Aug 2026344
Jul 2026380
Jun 2026369
May 2026375
Apr 2026354
Mar 2026361
Feb 2026362
Jan 2026349
Dec 2025334
Nov 2025362
Oct 2025389
Sept 2025395
Aug 2025398
Jul 2025395
Jun 2025407
May 2025402
Apr 2025415
Mar 2025429
Feb 2025398
Jan 2025383
Dec 2024402
Nov 2024404
Oct 2024424
Sept 2024419
Aug 2024427
Jul 2024429
Jun 2024419
May 2024404
Apr 2024395
Mar 2024390
Feb 2024387
Jan 2024386
Dec 2023380
Nov 2023382
Oct 2023375
Sept 2023392
Aug 2023392
Jul 2023387
Jun 2023377
May 2023398
Apr 2023392
Mar 2023377
Feb 2023367
Jan 2023374
Dec 2022379
Nov 2022390
Oct 2022411
Sept 2022396
Aug 2022428
Jul 2022388
Jun 2022388
May 2022377
Apr 2022357
Mar 2022342
Feb 2022337
Jan 2022345
Dec 2021326
Nov 2021320
Oct 2021319
Sept 2021319
Aug 2021325
Jul 2021327
Jun 2021325
May 2021315
Apr 2021317
Mar 2021310
Feb 2021312
Jan 2021304
Dec 2020315
Nov 2020325
Oct 2020312
Sept 2020308
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020289
Jun 2020290
May 2020279
Apr 2020279

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-140-71-retail-kg.