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Food basket in Tenkodogo

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,301–4,939

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,989–5,400

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,150 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,301 and 4,939 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,989 and 5,400 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tenkodogo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,150 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,301 and 4,939 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,989 and 5,400 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 8,777); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,816–4,580 4,141 3,691–5,180
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,494–4,776 4,124 3,065–6,250
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,301–4,939 4,048 2,429–7,166
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 3,049–5,488 4,063 2,113–8,777
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,989–5,400 4,098 1,958–8,200
Cost history (136 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,481
Aug 20264,150
Jul 20264,426
Jun 20264,068
May 20264,445
Apr 20264,301
Mar 20264,567
Feb 20264,167
Jan 20264,081
Dec 20254,338
Nov 20254,355
Oct 20254,738
Sept 20254,791
Aug 20255,704
Jul 20255,329
Jun 20255,794
May 20255,682
Apr 20255,953
Mar 20256,053
Feb 20255,331
Jan 20255,581
Dec 20245,272
Nov 20245,344
Oct 20245,552
Sept 20246,104
Aug 20246,065
Jul 20245,359
Jun 20244,963
May 20244,878
Apr 20244,549
Mar 20244,694
Feb 20244,198
Jan 20244,436
Dec 20234,242
Nov 20234,070
Oct 20234,139
Sept 20234,430
Aug 20233,982
Jul 20234,372
Jun 20234,307
May 20234,748
Apr 20234,613
Mar 20234,202
Feb 20234,129
Jan 20234,349
Dec 20224,898
Nov 20225,505
Oct 20225,804
Sept 20225,972
Aug 20226,200
Jul 20225,714
Jun 20225,576
May 20225,457
Apr 20225,500
Mar 20225,106
Feb 20224,379
Jan 20224,446
Dec 20213,755
Nov 20213,902
Oct 20213,557
Sept 20213,937
Aug 20213,795
Jul 20213,714
Jun 20213,670
May 20213,637
Apr 20213,644
Mar 20213,445
Feb 20213,282
Jan 20213,176
Dec 20203,391
Nov 20203,047
Oct 20202,952
Sept 20203,320
Aug 20202,989
Jul 20202,797
Jun 20202,758
May 20202,504
Apr 20202,504
Mar 20202,484
Feb 20202,377
Jan 20202,239
Dec 20192,166
Nov 20192,039
Oct 20192,267
Sept 20192,073
Aug 20192,201
Jul 20192,204
Jun 20192,297
May 20192,703
Apr 20192,433
Mar 20192,473
Feb 20192,438
Jan 20192,841
Dec 20182,841
Nov 20183,045
Oct 20183,098
Sept 20183,362
Aug 20183,478
Jul 20183,650
Jun 20183,558
May 20183,572
Apr 20183,452
Mar 20183,394
Feb 20183,371
Jan 20183,112
Dec 20173,221
Nov 20173,142
Oct 20173,037
Sept 20173,361
Aug 20173,397
Jul 20173,135
Jun 20173,215
May 20173,094
Apr 20172,947
Mar 20172,791
Feb 20172,767
Jan 20172,627
Dec 20162,590
Nov 20162,665
Oct 20162,683
Sept 20163,065
Aug 20162,946
Jun 20163,067
May 20163,099
Apr 20162,837
Mar 20162,783
Feb 20162,649
Jan 20162,602
Dec 20152,689
Nov 20152,562
Oct 20152,666
Sept 20152,625
Aug 20152,763
Jul 20152,768
Jun 20152,672
May 20152,641

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508