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Sorghum (white) in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

138–204

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

128–216

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Tougan: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 138 and 204 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 128 and 216 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 163–192 180 146–213 281 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 146–198 180 122–222 255 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 138–204 176 118–233 250 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 128–210 175 90.4–241 245 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 128–216 176 93–253 242 –
Price history (275 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026194
Aug 2026181
Jul 2026194
Jun 2026194
May 2026194
Apr 2026194
Mar 2026194
Feb 2026181
Jan 2026173
Dec 2025185
Nov 2025195
Oct 2025189
Sept 2025257
Aug 2025322
Jul 2025305
Jun 2025305
May 2025305
Apr 2025305
Mar 2025302
Feb 2025273
Jan 2025259
Dec 2024264
Nov 2024271
Oct 2024257
Sept 2024306
Aug 2024306
Jul 2024290
Jun 2024290
May 2024241
Apr 2024241
Mar 2024241
Feb 2024241
Jan 2024241
Dec 2023241
Nov 2023241
Oct 2023241
Sept 2023241
Aug 2023214
Jul 2023243
Jun 2023249
May 2023239
Apr 2023210
Mar 2023210
Feb 2023211
Jan 2023209
Dec 2022220
Nov 2022251
Oct 2022281
Sept 2022322
Aug 2022322
Jul 2022297
Jun 2022272
May 2022285
Apr 2022287
Mar 2022261
Feb 2022217
Jan 2022201
Dec 2021197
Nov 2021169
Oct 2021169
Sept 2021169
Aug 2021166
Jul 2021153
Jun 2021153
May 2021152
Apr 2021151
Mar 2021151
Feb 2021146
Jan 2021143
Dec 2020143
Nov 2020144
Oct 2020155
Sept 2020175
Aug 2020154
Jul 2020135
Jun 2020131
May 2020119
Apr 2020119
Mar 2020113
Feb 2020103
Jan 2020103
Dec 2019104
Nov 2019107
Oct 2019108
Sept 2019111
Aug 2019114
Jul 2019119
Jun 2019121
May 2019133
Apr 2019135
Mar 2019135
Feb 2019135
Jan 2019135
Dec 2018135
Nov 2018153
Oct 2018167
Sept 2018198
Aug 2018194
Jul 2018199
Jun 2018195
May 2018198
Apr 2018195
Mar 2018190
Feb 2018190
Jan 2018188
Dec 2017187
Nov 2017183
Oct 2017183
Sept 2017187
Aug 2017184
Jul 2017183
Jun 2017183
May 2017183
Apr 2017179
Mar 2017159
Feb 2017153
Jan 2017151
Dec 2016151
Nov 2016151
Oct 2016151
Sept 2016151
Aug 2016157
Jul 2016152
Jun 2016151
May 2016151
Apr 2016137
Mar 2016141
Feb 2016133
Jan 2016135
Dec 2015151
Nov 2015139
Oct 2015146
Sept 2015152
Aug 2015151
Jul 2015155
Jun 2015165
May 2015150
Apr 2015143
Mar 2015143
Feb 2015135
Jan 2015147
Dec 2014124
Nov 2014131
Oct 2014143
Sept 2014143
Jul 2014144
Jun 2014145
May 2014143
Apr 2014151
Mar 2014137
Feb 2014144
Dec 2013133
Nov 2013129
Oct 2013127
Sept 2013133
Aug 2013139
Jul 2013151
Jun 2013140
May 2013146
Apr 2013151
Mar 2013151
Feb 2013149
Jan 2013142
Dec 2012135
Nov 2012145
Oct 2012164
Sept 2012197
Aug 2012205
Jul 2012211
Jun 2012216
May 2012222
Apr 2012216
Mar 2012202
Feb 2012187
Jan 2012189
Nov 2011159
Oct 2011151
Sept 2011127
Aug 2011121
Jul 2011117
Jun 2011111
May 2011113
Apr 2011121
Mar 2011127
Feb 2011127
Jan 2011119
Dec 2010113
Nov 2010108
Oct 2010107
Sept 2010115
Aug 2010131
Jul 2010125
Jun 2010121
May 2010129
Apr 2010127
Mar 2010137
Feb 2010139
Jan 2010143
May 2009146
Apr 2009147
Mar 2009147
Feb 2009145
Jan 2009134
Dec 2008117
Nov 2008113
Oct 2008119
Sept 2008135
Aug 2008135
Jul 2008137
Jun 2008144
May 2008128
Apr 2008117
Mar 2008111
Feb 200883.2
Jan 2008101
Dec 200787.3
Nov 200793.2
Oct 200789.3
Sept 200793.2
Aug 200795.2
Jul 200789.3
Jun 200787.3
May 200789.3
Apr 200798.4
Mar 200795.2
Feb 200785.3
Jan 200781.4
Dec 200676.7
Nov 200677.4
Oct 200688.9
Sept 2006106
Aug 2006114
Jul 2006118
Jun 2006119
May 2006119
Apr 2006119
Mar 2006119
Feb 2006111
Jan 2006116
Dec 2005115
Nov 2005114
Oct 2005157
Sept 2005197
Aug 2005200
Jul 2005212
Jun 2005188
May 2005158
Apr 2005148
Mar 2005148
Feb 2005123
Jan 2005107
Dec 200499.5
Nov 200498.1
Oct 200459.4
Sept 200474.8
Aug 200477.1
Jul 200470.7
Jun 200478.1
May 200475
Apr 200476.2
Mar 200471.3
Feb 200467.2
Jan 200470.3
Dec 200370.3
Nov 200370.3
Oct 200393.8
Sept 2003105
Aug 2003113
Jul 2003121
Jun 2003133
May 2003135
Apr 2003129
Mar 2003134
Feb 2003129
Jan 2003133

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-141-135-retail-kg.