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Rice (imported) in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 5% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

468–533

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

451–554

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 468 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 451 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Tougan: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 5% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 468 and 533 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 451 and 554 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 484–518 501 468–560 533 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 476–523 500 437–604 533 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 468–533 498 432–604 552 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 460–545 497 410–624 552 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 451–554 497 391–627 546 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026500
Aug 2026500
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026520
Jan 2026550
Dec 2025550
Nov 2025550
Oct 2025550
Sept 2025550
Aug 2025550
Jul 2025550
Jun 2025550
May 2025550
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025550
Feb 2025550
Jan 2025520
Dec 2024550
Nov 2024550
Oct 2024450
Sept 2024450
Aug 2024450
Jul 2024450
Jun 2024450
May 2024450
Apr 2024450
Mar 2024425
Feb 2024425
Jan 2024425
Dec 2023425
Nov 2023425
Oct 2023425
Sept 2023425
Aug 2023425
Jul 2023425
Jun 2023425
May 2023425
Apr 2023425
Mar 2023425
Feb 2023431
Jan 2023425
Dec 2022425
Nov 2022425
Oct 2022425
Sept 2022425
Aug 2022425
Jul 2022425
Jun 2022425
May 2022425
Apr 2022425
Mar 2022413
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Sept 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-141-64-retail-kg.