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Rice (local) in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 22% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

301–419

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

286–474

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 301 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 286 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Tougan: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 22% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 7% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 301 and 419 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 286 and 474 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 744); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 324–388 349 306–458 461 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 314–402 351 280–521 452 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 301–419 352 243–574 445 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 280–437 349 206–648 416 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 286–474 357 230–744 458 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026376
Aug 2026344
Jul 2026376
Jun 2026376
May 2026371
Apr 2026376
Mar 2026376
Feb 2026373
Jan 2026376
Dec 2025319
Nov 2025333
Oct 2025395
Sept 2025435
Aug 2025437
Jul 2025435
Jun 2025435
May 2025435
Apr 2025326
Mar 2025353
Feb 2025353
Jan 2025489
Dec 2024348
Nov 2024485
Oct 2024441
Sept 2024438
Aug 2024441
Jul 2024441
Jun 2024441
May 2024441
Apr 2024441
Mar 2024441
Feb 2024441
Jan 2024440
Dec 2023441
Nov 2023441
Oct 2023441
Sept 2023446
Aug 2023441
Jul 2023412
Jun 2023441
May 2023441
Apr 2023441
Mar 2023441
Feb 2023441
Jan 2023441
Dec 2022437
Nov 2022441
Oct 2022433
Sept 2022441
Aug 2022446
Jul 2022440
Jun 2022441
May 2022441
Apr 2022378
Mar 2022321
Feb 2022325
Jan 2022323
Dec 2021322
Nov 2021322
Oct 2021331
Sept 2021326
Aug 2021355
Jul 2021322
Jun 2021322
May 2021322
Apr 2021322
Mar 2021319
Feb 2021322
Jan 2021335
Dec 2020315
Nov 2020322
Oct 2020322
Sept 2020327
Aug 2020300
Jul 2020278
Jun 2020291
May 2020291
Apr 2020291

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-141-71-retail-kg.