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Food basket in Tougan

BOUCLE DU MOUHOUN, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,829–4,414

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,571–4,790

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,446 XOF in June 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since June 2026: November 2026 is 5 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 2,829 and 4,414 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,571 and 4,790 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Tougan: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,446 XOF in June 2026. No complete basket cost has been published for this market since June 2026: November 2026 is 5 months after it, so the range is wider than usual. November 2026: most likely between 2,829 and 4,414 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,571 and 4,790 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 7,774); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,219–4,158 3,540 3,039–5,029
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,028–4,363 3,534 2,619–5,633
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,829–4,414 3,440 2,467–6,293
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,506–4,597 3,509 1,565–6,326
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,571–4,790 3,565 1,414–7,774
Cost history (112 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Jun 20263,446
May 20263,577
Apr 20263,567
Mar 20263,599
Feb 20264,043
Jan 20263,893
Dec 20253,908
Nov 20254,667
Jul 20255,837
Jun 20255,957
May 20255,957
Apr 20255,794
Mar 20256,045
Feb 20254,732
Jan 20254,877
Dec 20244,528
Nov 20244,570
Sept 20245,989
Aug 20245,819
Jul 20244,559
Jun 20244,777
May 20244,731
Apr 20244,623
Mar 20244,659
Feb 20244,983
Jan 20244,503
Dec 20234,503
Nov 20234,451
Aug 20234,337
Jul 20234,349
Jun 20234,433
May 20234,193
Apr 20233,953
Mar 20234,091
Feb 20233,941
Jan 20233,941
Dec 20224,325
Nov 20224,729
Oct 20225,485
Sept 20225,914
Jun 20225,230
May 20225,206
Apr 20225,038
Mar 20224,859
Feb 20224,237
Jan 20223,865
Dec 20213,601
Nov 20213,433
Oct 20213,267
Aug 20213,181
Jul 20213,123
Jun 20213,092
May 20213,073
Apr 20212,992
Mar 20212,903
Feb 20212,780
Jan 20212,730
Dec 20202,763
Oct 20202,981
Sept 20203,131
Aug 20202,831
Jun 20202,354
May 20202,262
Apr 20202,262
Mar 20202,178
Feb 20201,962
Jan 20201,856
Dec 20191,808
Nov 20191,808
Sept 20191,934
Jun 20192,156
May 20192,648
Apr 20192,716
Mar 20192,702
Feb 20192,623
Jan 20192,507
Dec 20182,507
Aug 20183,560
Jul 20183,556
Jun 20183,556
May 20183,553
Apr 20183,520
Mar 20183,464
Feb 20183,370
Jan 20183,201
Dec 20173,069
Nov 20173,263
Oct 20173,289
Jul 20173,115
Jun 20173,115
May 20173,130
Apr 20173,030
Mar 20172,973
Feb 20172,935
Jan 20172,813
Dec 20162,738
Nov 20162,714
Sept 20162,885
Aug 20162,878
Jun 20162,830
May 20162,837
Apr 20162,749
Mar 20162,645
Feb 20162,434
Jan 20162,464
Dec 20152,425
Nov 20152,493
Oct 20152,505
Sept 20152,745
Jul 20152,804
Jun 20152,768
May 20152,627

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508