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Sorghum (white) in Pouytenga

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 30% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

127–196

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

124–206

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 127 and 196 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Pouytenga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 30% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 4% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 127 and 196 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 124 and 206 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 155–193 174 140–201 258 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 140–195 170 132–207 242 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 127–196 163 95.3–201 222 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 120–200 157 88.1–212 214 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 124–206 158 99.2–246 216 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026177
Aug 2026176
Jul 2026160
Jun 2026185
May 2026184
Apr 2026188
Mar 2026177
Feb 2026164
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025177
Nov 2025201
Oct 2025183
Sept 2025201
Aug 2025250
Jul 2025262
Jun 2025271
May 2025251
Apr 2025259
Mar 2025268
Feb 2025228
Jan 2025201
Dec 2024189
Nov 2024226
Oct 2024276
Sept 2024279
Aug 2024279
Jul 2024268
Jun 2024239
May 2024237
Apr 2024231
Mar 2024221
Feb 2024206
Jan 2024195
Dec 2023196
Nov 2023200
Oct 2023221
Sept 2023221
Aug 2023214
Jul 2023205
Jun 2023240
May 2023200
Apr 2023215
Mar 2023226
Feb 2023210
Jan 2023193
Dec 2022179
Nov 2022195
Oct 2022246
Sept 2022274
Aug 2022273
Jul 2022272
Jun 2022272
May 2022267
Apr 2022266
Mar 2022238
Feb 2022208
Jan 2022173
Dec 2021166
Nov 2021158
Oct 2021163
Sept 2021153
Aug 2021168
Jul 2021170
Jun 2021158
May 2021147
Apr 2021146
Mar 2021142
Feb 2021129
Jan 2021121
Dec 2020120
Nov 2020121
Oct 2020145
Sept 2020150
Aug 2020143
Jul 2020125
Jun 2020119
May 2020111
Apr 2020111
Mar 2020110
Feb 2020113
Jan 2020107
Dec 2019106
Nov 2019103
Oct 2019109
Sept 2019112
Aug 2019111
Jul 2019121
Jun 2019122
May 2019124
Apr 2019121
Mar 2019124
Feb 2019119
Jan 2019118
Dec 2018118
Nov 2018121
Oct 2018126
Sept 2018160
Aug 2018169
Jul 2018168
Jun 2018158
May 2018155
Apr 2018150
Mar 2018151
Feb 2018143
Jan 2018135
Dec 2017141
Nov 2017135
Oct 2017139
Sept 2017149
Aug 2017151
Jul 2017146
Jun 2017149
May 2017144
Apr 2017138
Mar 2017134
Feb 2017134
Jan 2017131
Dec 2016126
Nov 2016128
Oct 2016141
Sept 2016160
Aug 2016148
Jul 2016149
Jun 2016153
May 2016152
Apr 2016152
Mar 2016149
Feb 2016143
Jan 2016134
Dec 2015134
Nov 2015128
Oct 2015132
Sept 2015171
Aug 2015161
Jul 2015152
Jun 2015165
May 2015155

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1802-135-retail-kg.