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Rice (local) in Pouytenga

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 19% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

285–342

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

272–363

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 272 and 363 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Pouytenga: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 19% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 285 and 342 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 272 and 363 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 505); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 295–326 304 285–362 390 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 291–336 305 269–404 395 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 285–342 303 254–403 387 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 278–349 303 242–431 372 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 272–363 305 231–505 370 –
Price history (77 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026313
Aug 2026304
Jul 2026289
Jun 2026300
May 2026297
Apr 2026313
Mar 2026309
Feb 2026352
Jan 2026348
Dec 2025364
Nov 2025386
Oct 2025383
Sept 2025376
Aug 2025392
Jul 2025395
Jun 2025397
May 2025386
Apr 2025388
Mar 2025382
Feb 2025384
Jan 2025384
Dec 2024373
Nov 2024387
Oct 2024403
Sept 2024403
Aug 2024402
Jul 2024373
Jun 2024371
May 2024375
Apr 2024382
Mar 2024369
Feb 2024356
Jan 2024358
Dec 2023363
Nov 2023365
Oct 2023374
Sept 2023375
Aug 2023371
Jul 2023369
Jun 2023364
May 2023364
Apr 2023369
Mar 2023377
Feb 2023358
Jan 2023355
Dec 2022357
Nov 2022365
Oct 2022387
Sept 2022386
Aug 2022366
Jul 2022350
Jun 2022353
May 2022349
Apr 2022350
Mar 2022343
Feb 2022331
Jan 2022316
Dec 2021318
Nov 2021327
Oct 2021333
Sept 2021332
Aug 2021326
Jul 2021329
Jun 2021333
May 2021307
Mar 2021309
Feb 2021302
Jan 2021316
Dec 2020313
Nov 2020340
Oct 2020337
Sept 2020322
Aug 2020316
Jul 2020313
Jun 2020315
May 2020319
Apr 2020319

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1802-71-retail-kg.