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Food basket in Pouytenga

CENTRE-EST, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,315–4,672

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,866–4,893

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,920 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,315 and 4,672 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,866 and 4,893 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Pouytenga: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,920 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,315 and 4,672 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,866 and 4,893 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,661–4,283 3,906 3,526–4,685
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,514–4,449 3,896 3,299–5,134
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,315–4,672 3,792 3,080–5,458
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,945–4,804 3,726 2,374–6,678
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,866–4,893 3,779 2,184–6,560
Cost history (134 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20263,797
Aug 20263,920
Jul 20263,630
Jun 20263,697
May 20263,829
Apr 20264,017
Mar 20263,938
Feb 20264,276
Jan 20264,169
Dec 20254,378
Nov 20254,309
Oct 20254,312
Sept 20255,008
Aug 20255,903
Jul 20255,015
Jun 20255,927
May 20255,984
Apr 20256,047
Mar 20255,962
Feb 20255,545
Jan 20255,524
Dec 20245,220
Nov 20245,828
Oct 20246,302
Sept 20246,483
Aug 20246,203
Jul 20245,542
May 20244,721
Apr 20244,584
Mar 20244,367
Feb 20244,258
Jan 20244,142
Dec 20234,216
Nov 20234,210
Oct 20234,232
Sept 20234,163
Aug 20234,127
Jul 20234,134
Jun 20234,232
May 20234,150
Apr 20234,156
Mar 20234,088
Feb 20234,014
Jan 20234,028
Dec 20224,072
Nov 20225,403
Oct 20225,798
Sept 20226,094
Aug 20225,840
Jul 20225,457
Jun 20225,448
May 20225,459
Apr 20225,425
Mar 20224,786
Feb 20224,199
Jan 20223,811
Dec 20213,804
Nov 20213,584
Oct 20213,625
Sept 20213,742
Aug 20213,613
Jul 20213,505
Jun 20213,485
May 20213,295
Mar 20213,206
Feb 20213,182
Jan 20213,124
Dec 20203,077
Nov 20203,338
Oct 20203,446
Sept 20203,391
Aug 20203,284
Jul 20202,925
Jun 20202,798
May 20202,678
Apr 20202,678
Mar 20202,671
Feb 20202,626
Jan 20202,558
Dec 20192,404
Nov 20192,378
Oct 20192,683
Sept 20192,513
Aug 20192,392
Jul 20192,441
Jun 20192,537
May 20192,648
Apr 20192,675
Mar 20192,700
Feb 20192,729
Jan 20192,821
Dec 20182,821
Nov 20183,242
Oct 20183,493
Sept 20183,579
Aug 20183,683
Jul 20183,671
Jun 20183,635
May 20183,556
Apr 20183,531
Mar 20183,481
Feb 20183,434
Jan 20183,191
Dec 20173,105
Nov 20173,320
Oct 20173,452
Sept 20173,528
Aug 20173,218
Jul 20173,118
Jun 20173,155
May 20173,062
Apr 20172,892
Mar 20172,828
Feb 20172,785
Jan 20172,626
Dec 20162,597
Nov 20163,099
Oct 20163,076
Sept 20163,067
Aug 20163,030
Jun 20163,049
May 20163,009
Apr 20162,973
Mar 20162,887
Feb 20162,755
Jan 20162,716
Dec 20152,662
Nov 20152,754
Oct 20153,098
Sept 20153,139
Aug 20153,084
Jul 20153,018
Jun 20153,126
May 20153,064

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508