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Sorghum (white) in Kaya

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 16% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

183–288

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

168–305

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Kaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 16% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It was about stable over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 183 and 288 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 168 and 305 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400500202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 224–276 257 199–288 304 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 200–280 249 166–308 292 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 183–288 236 125–346 280 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 166–296 231 93.5–369 276 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 168–305 236 102–400 282 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026275
Aug 2026260
Jul 2026263
Jun 2026258
May 2026258
Apr 2026242
Mar 2026217
Feb 2026196
Jan 2026192
Dec 2025205
Nov 2025208
Oct 2025221
Sept 2025239
Aug 2025278
Jul 2025299
Jun 2025294
May 2025294
Apr 2025292
Mar 2025298
Feb 2025293
Jan 2025270
Dec 2024258
Nov 2024284
Oct 2024322
Sept 2024344
Aug 2024336
Jul 2024303
Jun 2024310
May 2024313
Apr 2024295
Mar 2024291
Feb 2024272
Jan 2024259
Dec 2023231
Nov 2023235
Oct 2023256
Sept 2023257
Aug 2023257
Jul 2023264
Jun 2023287
May 2023278
Apr 2023280
Mar 2023274
Feb 2023266
Jan 2023252
Dec 2022233
Nov 2022237
Oct 2022277
Sept 2022323
Aug 2022329
Jul 2022319
Jun 2022317
May 2022312
Apr 2022317
Mar 2022299
Feb 2022263
Jan 2022245
Dec 2021241
Nov 2021220
Oct 2021203
Sept 2021176
Aug 2021188
Jul 2021184
Jun 2021199
May 2021189
Apr 2021189
Mar 2021205
Feb 2021261
Jan 2021209
Dec 2020212
Nov 2020213
Oct 2020213
Sept 2020214
Aug 2020244
Jul 2020214
Jun 2020150
May 2020136
Apr 2020136
Mar 2020135
Feb 2020135
Jan 2020150
Dec 2019150
Nov 2019148
Oct 2019150
Sept 2019150
Aug 2019153
Jul 2019153
Jun 2019158
May 2019155
Apr 2019160
Mar 2019168
Feb 2019166
Jan 2019163
Dec 2018163
Nov 2018178
Oct 2018182
Sept 2018217
Aug 2018210
Jul 2018210
Jun 2018210
May 2018210
Apr 2018210
Mar 2018208
Feb 2018206
Jan 2018203
Dec 2017192
Nov 2017193
Oct 2017209
Sept 2017216
Aug 2017204
Jul 2017184
Jun 2017188
May 2017179
Apr 2017176
Mar 2017173
Feb 2017164
Jan 2017168
Dec 2016168
Nov 2016168
Oct 2016166
Sept 2016167
Aug 2016165
Jul 2016173
Jun 2016176
May 2016166
Apr 2016165
Mar 2016174
Feb 2016237
Jan 2016180
Dec 2015160
Nov 2015155
Oct 2015188
Sept 2015195
Aug 2015185
Jul 2015174
Jun 2015192
May 2015168

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1803-135-retail-kg.