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Rice (imported) in Kaya

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 9% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

446–578

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

414–631

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

5%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 446 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Kaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 9% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 3% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 446 and 578 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 414 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 5%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 950); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 486–544 513 469–579 592 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 471–555 512 429–629 576 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 446–578 507 373–699 562 5%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 444–602 506 401–760 572 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 414–631 508 307–950 566 –
Price history (76 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026510
Aug 2026513
Jul 2026500
Jun 2026500
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026488
Jan 2026488
Dec 2025480
Nov 2025450
Oct 2025500
Sept 2025500
Aug 2025500
Jul 2025500
Jun 2025500
May 2025425
Apr 2025550
Mar 2025594
Feb 2025600
Jan 2025565
Dec 2024600
Nov 2024600
Oct 2024600
Sept 2024600
Aug 2024600
Jul 2024600
Jun 2024600
May 2024600
Apr 2024580
Mar 2024550
Feb 2024525
Jan 2024500
Dec 2023500
Nov 2023500
Oct 2023500
Sept 2023500
Aug 2023475
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023475
Dec 2022500
Nov 2022500
Oct 2022500
Sept 2022500
Aug 2022500
Jul 2022550
Jun 2022575
May 2022490
Mar 2022450
Feb 2022450
Jan 2022450
Dec 2021444
Nov 2021425
Oct 2021425
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Apr 2021311
Mar 2021405
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021406
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020419
Sept 2020450
Aug 2020450
Jul 2020405
Jun 2020431
May 2020388
Apr 2020388

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1803-64-retail-kg.