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Millet in Kaya

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 11% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

217–387

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

189–403

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

3%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 387 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 403 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Kaya: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 11% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 6% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 217 and 387 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 189 and 403 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 3%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 554); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 260–359 312 221–381 355 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 246–376 313 195–409 358 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 217–387 301 129–433 353 3%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 196–391 296 112–467 343 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 189–403 292 102–554 338 –
Price history (136 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026303
Aug 2026319
Jul 2026277
Jun 2026290
May 2026300
Apr 2026273
Mar 2026294
Feb 2026279
Jan 2026273
Dec 2025295
Nov 2025272
Oct 2025308
Sept 2025288
Aug 2025344
Jul 2025369
Jun 2025375
May 2025364
Apr 2025364
Mar 2025371
Feb 2025365
Jan 2025324
Dec 2024345
Nov 2024394
Oct 2024418
Sept 2024417
Aug 2024413
Jul 2024385
May 2024318
Apr 2024305
Mar 2024312
Feb 2024313
Jan 2024309
Dec 2023299
Nov 2023292
Oct 2023280
Sept 2023294
Aug 2023290
Jul 2023300
Jun 2023306
May 2023319
Apr 2023347
Mar 2023323
Feb 2023328
Jan 2023306
Dec 2022293
Nov 2022349
Oct 2022379
Sept 2022388
Aug 2022390
Jul 2022392
Jun 2022379
May 2022355
Apr 2022357
Mar 2022321
Feb 2022274
Jan 2022267
Dec 2021261
Nov 2021262
Oct 2021232
Sept 2021215
Aug 2021209
Jul 2021198
Jun 2021210
May 2021209
Apr 2021224
Mar 2021208
Feb 2021273
Jan 2021176
Dec 2020194
Nov 2020199
Oct 2020187
Sept 2020190
Aug 2020218
Jul 2020191
Jun 2020189
May 2020167
Apr 2020167
Mar 2020162
Feb 2020265
Jan 2020167
Dec 2019163
Nov 2019161
Oct 2019162
Sept 2019163
Aug 2019162
Jul 2019222
Jun 2019177
May 2019184
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019178
Feb 2019179
Jan 2019177
Dec 2018177
Nov 2018186
Oct 2018207
Sept 2018219
Aug 2018211
Jul 2018235
Jun 2018254
May 2018257
Apr 2018254
Mar 2018253
Feb 2018253
Jan 2018245
Dec 2017233
Nov 2017228
Oct 2017237
Sept 2017245
Aug 2017237
Jul 2017212
Jun 2017215
May 2017232
Apr 2017227
Mar 2017203
Feb 2017187
Jan 2017190
Dec 2016207
Nov 2016214
Oct 2016203
Sept 2016180
Aug 2016199
Jul 2016193
Jun 2016195
May 2016181
Apr 2016175
Mar 2016192
Feb 2016267
Jan 2016190
Dec 2015189
Nov 2015187
Oct 2015208
Sept 2015198
Aug 2015219
Jul 2015233
Jun 2015229
May 2015214

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1803-73-retail-kg.