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Food basket in Kaya

CENTRE-NORD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

3,079–5,368

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,820–5,699

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,474 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,079 and 5,368 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,820 and 5,699 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Kaya: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 4,474 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 3,079 and 5,368 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,820 and 5,699 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,750–4,969 4,383 3,287–5,287
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,510–5,153 4,388 2,842–5,567
Nov 2026
Next month		 3,079–5,368 4,256 2,133–5,958
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,757–5,471 4,225 1,761–6,683
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,820–5,699 4,209 1,810–7,229
Cost history (132 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,307
Aug 20264,474
Jul 20264,024
Jun 20264,182
May 20264,286
Apr 20263,964
Mar 20264,190
Feb 20264,023
Nov 20253,982
Sept 20254,131
Aug 20254,974
Jul 20255,171
Jun 20255,310
May 20255,284
Apr 20255,376
Mar 20255,487
Feb 20255,451
Jan 20254,941
Dec 20245,085
Nov 20245,516
Oct 20246,092
Sept 20246,289
Aug 20246,065
Jul 20245,556
May 20244,669
Apr 20244,427
Mar 20244,500
Feb 20244,476
Jan 20244,349
Dec 20234,180
Nov 20234,125
Oct 20233,855
Sept 20233,883
Aug 20233,928
Jul 20234,057
Jun 20234,063
May 20234,278
Apr 20234,533
Mar 20234,394
Feb 20234,490
Jan 20234,232
Dec 20224,056
Nov 20224,836
Oct 20225,160
Sept 20225,300
Aug 20225,540
Jul 20225,523
Jun 20225,421
May 20225,185
Apr 20225,166
Mar 20224,613
Feb 20224,188
Jan 20224,016
Dec 20213,922
Nov 20214,015
Oct 20213,538
Sept 20213,304
Aug 20213,241
Jul 20213,150
Jun 20213,265
May 20213,199
Apr 20213,228
Mar 20213,149
Feb 20213,893
Jan 20212,708
Dec 20202,854
Nov 20202,897
Oct 20202,766
Sept 20202,689
Aug 20203,098
Jul 20202,776
Jun 20202,727
May 20202,492
Apr 20202,492
Mar 20202,423
Feb 20203,673
Jan 20202,494
Dec 20192,417
Nov 20192,355
Oct 20192,448
Sept 20192,395
Aug 20192,401
Jul 20193,121
Jun 20192,585
May 20192,690
Apr 20192,591
Mar 20192,654
Feb 20192,524
Jan 20192,599
Dec 20182,599
Nov 20182,704
Oct 20182,974
Sept 20183,251
Aug 20183,175
Jul 20183,452
Jun 20183,698
May 20183,727
Apr 20183,678
Mar 20183,657
Feb 20183,661
Jan 20183,525
Dec 20173,341
Nov 20173,272
Oct 20173,348
Sept 20173,554
Aug 20173,447
Jul 20173,127
Jun 20173,131
May 20173,351
Apr 20173,289
Mar 20172,976
Feb 20172,930
Jan 20172,809
Dec 20162,979
Nov 20163,086
Oct 20162,809
Sept 20162,709
Aug 20162,941
Jun 20162,866
May 20162,692
Apr 20162,678
Mar 20162,804
Feb 20163,692
Jan 20162,714
Dec 20152,700
Nov 20152,703
Oct 20152,915
Sept 20152,803
Aug 20153,051
Jul 20153,365
Jun 20153,317
May 20152,993

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508