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Sorghum (white) in Leo

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 38% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

114–186

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

100–199

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

1%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 100 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Sorghum (white), Leo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 38% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 8% over the 3 months before. For sorghum, across 59 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 114 and 186 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 100 and 199 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 1%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300400202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 137–174 158 121–181 268 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 121–184 157 102–206 270 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 114–186 152 87.2–230 251 1%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 97–189 143 50.9–249 226 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 100–199 145 62–295 231 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026163
Aug 2026159
Jul 2026150
Jun 2026145
May 2026147
Apr 2026140
Mar 2026132
Feb 2026120
Jan 2026146
Dec 2025135
Nov 2025196
Oct 2025218
Sept 2025244
Aug 2025251
Jul 2025255
Jun 2025270
May 2025288
Apr 2025292
Mar 2025294
Feb 2025293
Jan 2025242
Dec 2024224
Nov 2024284
Oct 2024293
Sept 2024292
Aug 2024290
Jul 2024290
Jun 2024272
May 2024224
Apr 2024216
Mar 2024220
Feb 2024231
Jan 2024247
Dec 2023247
Nov 2023221
Oct 2023230
Sept 2023233
Aug 2023236
Jul 2023238
Jun 2023238
May 2023245
Apr 2023254
Mar 2023254
Feb 2023254
Jan 2023217
Dec 2022181
Nov 2022259
Oct 2022363
Sept 2022364
Aug 2022357
Jul 2022294
Jun 2022253
May 2022250
Apr 2022250
Mar 2022215
Feb 2022216
Jan 2022205
Dec 2021195
Nov 2021197
Oct 2021216
Sept 2021216
Aug 2021208
Jul 2021176
Jun 2021178
May 2021175
Apr 2021179
Mar 2021160
Feb 2021143
Jan 2021121
Dec 2020150
Nov 2020163
Oct 2020175
Sept 2020140
Aug 2020143
Jul 2020134
Jun 2020124
May 2020122
Apr 2020122
Mar 2020113
Feb 2020113
Jan 2020114
Dec 2019115
Nov 2019114
Oct 2019113
Sept 2019112
Aug 2019119
Jul 2019123
Jun 2019127
May 2019134
Apr 2019161
Mar 2019161
Feb 2019161
Jan 2019161
Dec 2018161
Nov 2018174
Oct 2018193
Sept 2018196
Aug 2018206
Jul 2018199
Jun 2018199
May 2018199
Apr 2018199
Mar 2018175
Feb 2018173
Jan 2018175
Dec 2017175
Nov 2017175
Oct 2017168
Sept 2017168
Aug 2017168
Jul 2017132
Jun 2017132
May 2017132
Apr 2017132
Mar 2017114
Feb 2017120
Jan 2017149
Dec 2016145
Nov 2016145
Oct 2016145
Sept 2016148
Aug 2016148
Jul 2016152
Jun 2016167
May 2016163
Apr 2016150
Mar 2016166
Feb 2016162
Jan 2016162
Dec 2015158
Nov 2015164
Oct 2015171
Sept 2015171
Aug 2015171
Jul 2015176
Jun 2015177
May 2015177

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1804-135-retail-kg.