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Rice (imported) in Leo

CENTRE-OUEST, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 7% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

448–523

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

433–546

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 448 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 433 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (imported), Leo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 7% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 2% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 448 and 523 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 433 and 546 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 467–508 487 446–549 541 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 459–515 486 428–581 546 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 448–523 483 393–579 546 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 438–534 482 370–628 545 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 433–546 485 373–656 547 –
Price history (74 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026525
Aug 2026488
Jul 2026450
Jun 2026466
May 2026500
Apr 2026500
Mar 2026500
Feb 2026500
Jan 2026500
Dec 2025500
Nov 2025510
Oct 2025510
Sept 2025510
Aug 2025510
Jul 2025510
Jun 2025559
May 2025575
Apr 2025575
Mar 2025575
Feb 2025525
Jan 2025525
Dec 2024525
Nov 2024525
Oct 2024525
Sept 2024538
Aug 2024515
Jul 2024500
Jun 2024500
May 2024500
Apr 2024500
Mar 2024500
Feb 2024500
Jan 2024463
Dec 2023450
Nov 2023450
Oct 2023450
Sept 2023450
Jul 2023450
Jun 2023450
May 2023450
Apr 2023450
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023450
Jan 2023450
Dec 2022450
Nov 2022450
Oct 2022450
Sept 2022400
Aug 2022400
Jul 2022400
Jun 2022400
May 2022400
Mar 2022400
Feb 2022400
Jan 2022400
Dec 2021400
Nov 2021400
Oct 2021400
Aug 2021400
Jul 2021400
Jun 2021400
May 2021400
Mar 2021400
Feb 2021400
Jan 2021400
Dec 2020400
Nov 2020400
Oct 2020400
Sept 2020400
Aug 2020400
Jul 2020400
Jun 2020400
May 2020400
Apr 2020400

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1804-64-retail-kg.