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Beans (niebe) in Guelwongo

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 32% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

295–531

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

288–631

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 295 and 531 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 288 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Beans (niebe), Guelwongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 32% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 5% over the 3 months before. For beans, across 62 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price fell 2% over those 3 months. November 2026: most likely between 295 and 531 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 288 and 631 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600800202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 401–522 452 343–594 687 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 354–536 453 264–700 623 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 295–531 395 206–721 523 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 295–574 413 165–731 567 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 288–631 440 142–673 593 –
Price history (136 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026468
Aug 2026452
Jul 2026489
Jun 2026493
May 2026476
Apr 2026475
Mar 2026482
Feb 2026469
Jan 2026494
Dec 2025483
Nov 2025486
Oct 2025580
Sept 2025561
Aug 2025702
Jul 2025703
Jun 2025724
May 2025700
Apr 2025647
Mar 2025668
Feb 2025651
Jan 2025756
Dec 2024640
Nov 2024581
Oct 2024727
Sept 2024833
Aug 2024675
Jul 2024615
Jun 2024553
May 2024565
Apr 2024511
Mar 2024491
Feb 2024475
Jan 2024424
Dec 2023422
Nov 2023426
Oct 2023427
Sept 2023426
Aug 2023440
Jul 2023446
Jun 2023481
May 2023469
Apr 2023445
Mar 2023450
Feb 2023445
Jan 2023423
Dec 2022448
Nov 2022349
Oct 2022452
Sept 2022478
Aug 2022575
Jul 2022597
Jun 2022587
May 2022580
Apr 2022575
Mar 2022562
Feb 2022604
Jan 2022632
Dec 2021588
Nov 2021610
Oct 2021598
Sept 2021700
Aug 2021649
Jul 2021631
Jun 2021588
May 2021506
Apr 2021452
Mar 2021402
Feb 2021450
Jan 2021447
Dec 2020407
Nov 2020334
Oct 2020353
Sept 2020375
Aug 2020355
Jul 2020380
Jun 2020380
May 2020336
Apr 2020336
Mar 2020333
Feb 2020326
Jan 2020337
Dec 2019311
Nov 2019323
Oct 2019370
Sept 2019345
Aug 2019346
Jul 2019273
Jun 2019315
May 2019363
Apr 2019372
Mar 2019353
Feb 2019365
Jan 2019335
Dec 2018335
Nov 2018304
Oct 2018340
Sept 2018435
Aug 2018539
Jul 2018426
Jun 2018468
May 2018464
Apr 2018452
Mar 2018429
Feb 2018412
Jan 2018322
Dec 2017336
Nov 2017378
Oct 2017401
Sept 2017408
Aug 2017354
Jul 2017377
Jun 2017374
May 2017383
Apr 2017382
Mar 2017373
Feb 2017404
Jan 2017197
Dec 2016174
Nov 2016120
Oct 2016253
Sept 2016380
Aug 2016363
Jun 2016384
May 2016357
Apr 2016340
Mar 2016352
Feb 2016368
Jan 2016323
Dec 2015327
Nov 2015192
Oct 2015344
Sept 2015374
Aug 2015355
Jul 2015336
Jun 2015336
May 2015326

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1805-120-retail-kg.