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Maize (white) in Guelwongo

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 50% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

90.1–151

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

95.8–166

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

0%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 50% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 22% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 90.1 and 151 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 95.8 and 166 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Maize (white), Guelwongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 50% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 22% over the 3 months before. For maize, across 53 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 90.1 and 151 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 95.8 and 166 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 0%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0100200300202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 113–146 125 96.6–156 256 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 104–154 124 82.8–167 244 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 90.1–151 122 55.8–167 228 0%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 89.6–159 123 54.2–174 240 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 95.8–166 124 76.3–199 246 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026132
Aug 2026121
Jul 2026134
Jun 2026161
May 2026156
Apr 2026157
Mar 2026157
Feb 2026144
Jan 2026160
Dec 2025158
Nov 2025166
Oct 2025168
Sept 2025170
Aug 2025203
Jul 2025234
Jun 2025255
May 2025266
Apr 2025240
Mar 2025249
Feb 2025240
Jan 2025265
Dec 2024258
Nov 2024240
Oct 2024277
Sept 2024258
Aug 2024242
Jul 2024224
Jun 2024216
May 2024204
Apr 2024213
Mar 2024196
Feb 2024189
Jan 2024213
Dec 2023243
Nov 2023265
Oct 2023285
Sept 2023286
Aug 2023299
Jul 2023296
Jun 2023302
May 2023292
Apr 2023282
Mar 2023283
Feb 2023274
Jan 2023290
Dec 2022313
Nov 2022215
Oct 2022208
Sept 2022242
Aug 2022264
Jul 2022291
Jun 2022292
May 2022302
Apr 2022293
Mar 2022271
Feb 2022266
Jan 2022285
Dec 2021262
Nov 2021225
Oct 2021252
Sept 2021246
Aug 2021235
Jul 2021228
Jun 2021223
May 2021213
Apr 2021176
Mar 2021182
Feb 2021186
Jan 2021174
Dec 2020169
Nov 2020164
Oct 2020163
Sept 2020156
Aug 2020163
Jul 2020154
Jun 2020143
May 2020142
Apr 2020142
Mar 2020147
Feb 2020149
Jan 2020160
Dec 2019139
Nov 2019125
Oct 2019121
Sept 2019115
Aug 2019115
Jul 2019128
Jun 2019137
May 2019166
Apr 2019181
Mar 2019169
Feb 2019158
Jan 2019163
Dec 2018163
Nov 2018157
Oct 2018165
Sept 2018210
Aug 2018205
Jul 2018190
Jun 2018198
May 2018162
Apr 2018181
Mar 2018172
Feb 2018133
Jan 2018154
Dec 2017130
Nov 2017143
Oct 2017153
Sept 2017156
Aug 2017146
Jul 2017157
Jun 2017159
May 2017163
Apr 2017149
Mar 2017140
Feb 2017149
Jan 201786
Dec 201688
Nov 201690
Oct 2016121
Sept 2016155
Aug 2016159
Jul 2016164
Jun 2016167
May 2016161
Apr 2016156
Mar 2016159
Feb 2016160
Jan 2016163
Dec 2015165
Nov 2015113
Oct 2015170
Sept 2015166
Aug 2015162
Jul 2015183
Jun 2015164
May 2015167

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1805-67-retail-kg.