Staple Signals Français

Home › Burkina Faso

Rice (local) in Guelwongo

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 20% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

297–427

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

276–475

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

4%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 427 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 276 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Rice (local), Guelwongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 20% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It rose 9% over the 3 months before. For rice, across 63 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 297 and 427 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 276 and 475 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 4%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. The 95 % range goes above the top of the chart (up to 719); see the table.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 319–385 353 292–445 426 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 301–397 353 264–497 414 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 297–427 353 246–552 427 4%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 291–457 352 262–658 452 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 276–475 355 216–719 451 –
Price history (78 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026331
Aug 2026352
Jul 2026382
Jun 2026383
May 2026323
Apr 2026355
Mar 2026339
Feb 2026353
Jan 2026399
Dec 2025427
Nov 2025439
Oct 2025441
Sept 2025419
Aug 2025485
Jul 2025471
Jun 2025520
May 2025476
Apr 2025449
Mar 2025454
Feb 2025473
Jan 2025515
Dec 2024464
Nov 2024451
Oct 2024416
Sept 2024412
Aug 2024382
Jul 2024391
Jun 2024398
May 2024376
Apr 2024375
Mar 2024357
Feb 2024389
Jan 2024377
Dec 2023404
Nov 2023432
Oct 2023422
Sept 2023453
Aug 2023523
Jul 2023528
Jun 2023510
May 2023493
Apr 2023474
Mar 2023467
Feb 2023447
Jan 2023471
Dec 2022504
Nov 2022371
Oct 2022308
Sept 2022329
Aug 2022390
Jul 2022420
Jun 2022415
May 2022418
Apr 2022420
Mar 2022410
Feb 2022376
Jan 2022420
Dec 2021377
Nov 2021336
Oct 2021395
Sept 2021385
Aug 2021397
Jul 2021373
Jun 2021392
May 2021397
Apr 2021408
Mar 2021402
Feb 2021373
Jan 2021336
Dec 2020344
Nov 2020349
Oct 2020328
Sept 2020367
Aug 2020355
Jul 2020361
Jun 2020323
May 2020333
Apr 2020333

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1805-71-retail-kg.