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Millet in Guelwongo

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per KG · retail

Normal August 2026: 39% below the usual level for that time of year.

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

November 2026: 80 % range

189–322

XOF per KG. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

157–354

XOF per KG. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Chance of a spike, November 2026

2%

Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet.

In August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 189 and 322 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 354 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).

Prices and forecast

Millet, Guelwongo: XOF per KGIn August 2026 the price was 39% below the usual level for that time of year (normal). It fell 3% over the 3 months before. For millet, across 60 markets in Burkina Faso, the median price was about stable. November 2026: most likely between 189 and 322 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 157 and 354 XOF/KG (8 in 10 chance). Chance of a spike in November 2026 (price well above the usual level for the season): 2%. Warnings of new spikes have no proven skill yet (track record 2023-2026).0200400600202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range
  • Usual level for the season

XOF per KG. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price.

Forecast table (XOF per KG)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range Usual level for the season Chance of a spike
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 220–295 255 194–340 414 –
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 198–304 256 143–407 397 –
Nov 2026
Next month		 189–322 252 126–433 411 2%
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 180–342 252 118–480 410 –
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 157–354 252 64.8–544 396 –
Price history (137 months, latest first)
Observed prices (XOF per KG)
MonthPriceNote
Sept 2026281
Aug 2026251
Jul 2026268
Jun 2026259
May 2026258
Apr 2026316
Mar 2026293
Feb 2026270
Jan 2026278
Dec 2025300
Nov 2025286
Oct 2025318
Sept 2025302
Aug 2025366
Jul 2025423
Jun 2025457
May 2025435
Apr 2025438
Mar 2025404
Feb 2025393
Jan 2025423
Dec 2024463
Nov 2024446
Oct 2024397
Sept 2024387
Aug 2024350
Jul 2024369
Jun 2024329
May 2024328
Apr 2024323
Mar 2024292
Feb 2024252
Jan 2024287
Dec 2023352
Nov 2023360
Oct 2023368
Sept 2023386
Aug 2023391
Jul 2023392
Jun 2023368
May 2023384
Apr 2023370
Mar 2023374
Feb 2023372
Jan 2023400
Dec 2022550
Nov 2022485
Oct 2022427
Sept 2022427
Aug 2022454
Jul 2022457
Jun 2022445
May 2022445
Apr 2022428
Mar 2022396
Feb 2022349
Jan 2022334
Dec 2021318
Nov 2021308
Oct 2021301
Sept 2021313
Aug 2021318
Jul 2021310
Jun 2021332
May 2021309
Apr 2021306
Mar 2021303
Feb 2021294
Jan 2021298
Dec 2020288
Nov 2020326
Oct 2020294
Sept 2020274
Aug 2020234
Jul 2020240
Jun 2020215
May 2020222
Apr 2020222
Mar 2020211
Feb 2020207
Jan 2020214
Dec 2019192
Nov 2019181
Oct 2019138
Sept 2019205
Aug 2019197
Jul 2019211
Jun 2019249
May 2019233
Apr 2019225
Mar 2019216
Feb 2019206
Jan 2019248
Dec 2018248
Nov 2018261
Oct 2018220
Sept 2018235
Aug 2018284
Jul 2018277
Jun 2018294
May 2018303
Apr 2018302
Mar 2018229
Feb 2018232
Jan 2018224
Dec 2017212
Nov 2017228
Oct 2017244
Sept 2017209
Aug 2017231
Jul 2017240
Jun 2017244
May 2017233
Apr 2017228
Mar 2017221
Feb 2017200
Jan 2017114
Dec 2016104
Nov 2016111
Oct 2016146
Sept 2016174
Aug 2016201
Jul 2016202
Jun 2016200
May 2016190
Apr 2016192
Mar 2016177
Feb 2016171
Jan 2016168
Dec 2015157
Nov 201596
Oct 2015140
Sept 2015172
Aug 2015208
Jul 2015239
Jun 2015203
May 2015216

Track record in Burkina Faso

How past forecasts for Burkina Faso did in a test on earlier data (backtest). Full track record.

Past forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Warnings of new spikes Cases
Estimate (last month) 82% 96% 4% better than the base rate 12,122
Estimate (this month) 81% 95% 7% better than the base rate 12,073
Next month 81% 95% 9% better than the base rate 12,034
In 2 months 81% 94% 12% worse than the base rate 12,001
In 3 months 81% 94% 14% worse than the base rate 11,975

Last observed: September 2026. Series id: burkina-faso-1805-73-retail-kg.