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Food basket in Guelwongo

CENTRE-SUD, Burkina Faso · XOF per person per month

Prices up to August 2026 (WFP publishes with a delay). Forecast made October 2026. How often past forecasts were right.

What is in the basket

For one person for one month: 12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe).

Not included: cooking oil (WFP has no long enough price series for it here).

A simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket. How the basket is made.

November 2026: 80 % range

2,897–5,085

XOF per person per month. 8 in 10 chance the price falls in this range.

January 2027: 80 % range

2,518–5,107

XOF per person per month. Wider: 3 months ahead.

Why so wide? Food prices really move this much, especially around the harvest and the lean season, and WFP publishes prices about two months late, so “next month” is about three months after the last known price. A narrower range would look more precise but be wrong more often. Use the most likely value for the direction and the upper end as a margin. More about the ranges

A staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,826 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,897 and 5,085 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,518 and 5,107 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.

Basket cost and forecast

Food basket in Guelwongo: XOF per person per monthA staple basket for one person for one month (12 kg Millet, 1.8 kg Beans (niebe)) cost about 3,826 XOF in August 2026. November 2026: most likely between 2,897 and 5,085 XOF (8 in 10 chance). January 2027: most likely between 2,518 and 5,107 XOF (8 in 10 chance). Not included: cooking oil; WFP's price series for them here are missing or too short for a forecast. This is a simple ration-based basket made by Staple Signals, not an official minimum expenditure basket.02,0004,0006,0008,000202520262027
  • Observed price
  • Most likely (forecast)
  • 80 % range
  • 95 % range

XOF per person per month. Last 2 years and the forecast; the full history is in the table below. The shaded area covers the estimates of the last two months and the forecasts; the fan starts at the last observed price. A price published after the forecast was made is shown on the observed line, next to the estimate for that month.

Forecast table (XOF per person per month)
Month 80 % range Most likely 95 % range
Sept 2026
Estimate (last month)		 3,474–4,562 3,930 3,145–5,231
Oct 2026
Estimate (this month)		 3,107–4,904 3,912 2,378–6,692
Nov 2026
Next month		 2,897–5,085 3,858 2,244–6,654
Dec 2026
In 2 months		 2,853–5,247 3,917 2,096–6,856
Jan 2027
In 3 months		 2,518–5,107 3,865 1,469–6,558
Cost history (113 months, latest first)
Observed basket cost (XOF per person per month)
MonthCost
Sept 20264,214
Aug 20263,826
Jul 20264,096
Jun 20263,995
May 20263,953
Feb 20264,084
Jan 20264,225
Dec 20254,469
Nov 20254,307
Oct 20254,860
Sept 20254,634
Aug 20255,656
Jul 20256,341
Jun 20256,787
May 20256,480
Mar 20256,050
Jan 20256,437
Dec 20246,708
Nov 20246,398
Oct 20246,073
Sept 20246,143
Aug 20245,415
Jul 20245,535
Jun 20244,943
May 20244,953
Feb 20243,879
Jan 20244,207
Dec 20234,984
Nov 20235,087
Oct 20235,185
Sept 20235,399
Aug 20235,484
Jul 20235,507
Jun 20235,282
May 20235,452
Mar 20235,298
Jan 20235,561
Dec 20227,406
Nov 20226,448
Oct 20225,938
Sept 20225,984
Aug 20226,483
Jul 20226,559
Jun 20226,397
Apr 20226,171
Mar 20225,764
Jan 20225,146
Dec 20214,874
Nov 20214,794
Oct 20214,688
Sept 20215,016
Aug 20214,984
Jul 20214,856
Jun 20215,042
May 20214,619
Mar 20214,360
Feb 20214,338
Dec 20204,189
Nov 20204,513
Oct 20204,163
Sept 20203,963
Aug 20203,447
Jul 20203,564
Jun 20203,264
May 20203,269
Mar 20203,131
Jan 20203,175
Dec 20192,864
Nov 20192,753
Oct 20192,322
Sept 20193,081
Aug 20192,987
Jul 20193,023
Jun 20193,555
Apr 20193,370
Feb 20193,129
Dec 20183,579
Nov 20183,679
Oct 20183,252
Sept 20183,603
Aug 20184,378
Jul 20184,091
Jun 20184,370
May 20184,471
Apr 20184,438
Mar 20183,520
Dec 20173,149
Nov 20173,416
Oct 20173,650
Sept 20173,242
Aug 20173,409
Jul 20173,559
Jun 20173,601
May 20173,485
Apr 20173,424
Feb 20173,127
Jan 20171,723
Dec 20161,561
Nov 20161,548
Oct 20162,207
Sept 20162,772
Aug 20163,065
Jun 20163,091
May 20162,923
Feb 20162,714
Jan 20162,597
Dec 20152,473
Nov 20151,498
Oct 20152,299
Sept 20152,737
Aug 20153,135
Jul 20153,473
Jun 20153,041

Track record of the basket forecasts in Burkina Faso

How past basket forecasts did in a test on earlier data (2023-01 onwards). Full track record.

Past basket forecasts, Burkina Faso
Horizon 80 % range held
ideal 80 %		 95 % range held
ideal 95 %		 Typical error Cases
Estimate (last month) 83% 96% 4% 2,526
Estimate (this month) 81% 96% 7% 2,519
Next month 78% 95% 10% 2,515
In 2 months 79% 94% 13% 2,512
In 3 months 78% 94% 17% 2,508